Over-crediting analysis PoA 10471 Results from python analysis for Programme of Activities (PoA) 10471 transitioning to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism

An analysis of PoA 10471, a cookstove project in Myanmar transitioning to the Article 6.4 mechanism, indicates that the project is likely to issue 7.2 times more credits than justified based on literature-based adjustments. The analysis, applying the Gill-Wiehl (2024) methodology, identifies several factors contributing to this over-crediting, with 'stacking' (2.63x) and 'usage' (1.96x) being the most significant drivers across both analyzed batches of component project activities.

• Based on the Gill-Wiehl (2024) methodology, PoA 10471 is likely to issue 7.2 times more credits than it should have during monitoring period 2.
• The over-crediting is driven by multiple factors, with the highest multipliers attributed to stacking (2.63), usage (1.96), and consumption (averaging 1.55).
• The analysis covered two batches of component project activities (CPAs) for the monitoring period from 1 January 2021 to 31 May 2022: batch 1 (CPA 1-6) and batch 2 (CPA 11-58).
• The project's transition from the CDM to the Article 6.4 mechanism has been approved by the Article 6.4 Supervisory Body.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (n.d.). Over-crediting analysis PoA 10471 Results from python analysis for Programme of Activities (PoA) 10471 transitioning to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Over-crediting-analysis-PoA-10471.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. Over-crediting analysis PoA 10471 Results from python analysis for Programme of Activities (PoA) 10471 transitioning to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism. n.d. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Over-crediting-analysis-PoA-10471.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=Over-crediting analysis PoA 10471 Results from python analysis for Programme of Activities (PoA) 10471 transitioning to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Over-crediting-analysis-PoA-10471.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatchndovercrediting, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{Over-crediting analysis PoA 10471 Results from python analysis for Programme of Activities (PoA) 10471 transitioning to the Paris Agreement Crediting Mechanism}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/06/Over-crediting-analysis-PoA-10471.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }