Leaning on Uncertainty

The document examines Ireland's climate strategy, highlighting a systemic over-reliance on carbon dioxide removals (CDR) and afforestation to bridge gaps in emission reductions. It identifies significant delivery risks for industrial removals like BECCS, which may not be operational until the mid-2030s, and notes that afforestation targets are consistently missed. The report criticizes the lack of transparency regarding residual emissions and the potential for 'temperature neutrality' goals to lower overall climate ambition.

• Ireland is utilizing carbon removals to address near-term emission reduction gaps rather than focusing on strategic mitigation in sectors like transport and agriculture. The government introduced 'residual unallocated emissions' for the 2026-2030 period, effectively deferring responsibility for a significant portion of emissions and relying on removals to bridge this gap.
• There is a critical contradiction between Ireland's policy goals and the technical feasibility of industrial removals. While the 2024 Climate Action Plan positions engineered CDR as essential from 2026, internal assessments suggest BECCS deployment may not begin until the mid-2030s, contingent on international storage and new regulations.
• Ireland's LULUCF sector is projected to miss its 2030 targets due to a persistent failure to meet afforestation goals. Despite targets of 8,000 hectares per year, only 1,573 hectares were planted in 2024, and forest land was reported as a net emitter for the first time in 2022.
• The Irish government lacks a transparent and credible quantification of gross emissions for 2050. The 2024 National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) projects residual emissions in 2050 of approximately 38.48 Mt CO2eq, which is 63% of 1990 emissions, indicating a lack of clear pathways to carbon neutrality.
• Proposed shifts toward 'temperature neutrality' and the exclusion of short-lived emissions like methane from the 2050 goal could significantly reduce Ireland's climate ambition and eliminate incentives for mitigation in the agricultural sector.
• Ireland's carbon storage infrastructure is severely underdeveloped; current legislation includes a ban on both onshore and offshore CO2 storage, and there is a lack of rigorous feasibility studies for international storage options.

APA

Orth, D. (2026). Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Ireland.pdf

Chicago

Orth, Daniel. Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch, 2026. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Ireland.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Orth |first1=Daniel |title=Leaning on Uncertainty |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=April 2026 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Ireland.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orth2026leaning, author = {Orth, Daniel}, title = {{Leaning on Uncertainty}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Ireland.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }