Leaning on Uncertainty

Finland relies on Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS), biochar, and land sinks to reach its 2035 carbon neutrality target, but faces significant delivery risks. The government has disregarded scientific advice from the Finnish Climate Change Panel to moderate logging levels to restore the declining land sink, which currently shows rising net emissions. While the government is pursuing BECCS, it lacks domestic geological storage and must rely on international transport and storage, which are constrained by limited capacity in Northern Europe. Furthermore, current financial allocations for BECCS are significantly lower than the estimated needs to achieve projected removal volumes.

• Finland's 2035 carbon neutrality target depends on both land sinks and engineered removals, yet the government lacks specific targets for engineered removals and land-sink targets beyond 2030.
• The Finnish government has ignored recommendations from the Finnish Climate Change Panel to reduce logging levels to recover the land sink, instead proposing measures that modelling suggests do not improve forest growth.
• Expectations for BECCS removal volumes by 2035 have been downgraded from 5 Mt CO2eq to 3 Mt CO2eq due to a lack of economic incentives and delayed deployment timelines.
• Finland faces a critical infrastructure gap as domestic geological storage of CO2 is prohibited by law and no suitable domestic sites exist, necessitating reliance on international storage in the North Sea or Southern Baltic Sea.
• There is a significant funding gap for BECCS; the government's allocated budget is far below the estimated €605-705 million per year required to achieve a 5 Mt deployment by 2035.
• The government has not conducted essential impact assessments regarding biomass availability, land-use conflicts, or the effects of climate change on sequestration rates for its removal strategies.
• Finland is considering the use of international carbon credits under Article 6 of the Paris Agreement, despite advice from the Finnish Climate Change Panel to prioritize domestic action.

APA

Orth, D. (2026). Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Finland.pdf

Chicago

Orth, Daniel. Leaning on Uncertainty. Carbon Market Watch, 2026. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Finland.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Orth |first1=Daniel |title=Leaning on Uncertainty |publisher=Carbon Market Watch |date=April 2026 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Finland.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{orth2026leaning, author = {Orth, Daniel}, title = {{Leaning on Uncertainty}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Leaning-on-uncertainty-Finland.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }