Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement

The policy brief defines 'hot air' as carbon credits that do not represent real emission reductions, which can increase overall global emissions if used to meet mitigation pledges. It identifies four primary sources of hot air: surplus allowances from emission trading systems, double-counted reductions, non-additional credits from offsetting projects, and non-permanent land-use offsets. To protect the environmental integrity of the Paris agreement, the author recommends regulating carbon market use to exclude surplus pre-2020 units, establishing a robust international accounting and MRV system, shifting from offset credits to direct financial support for developing countries, and banning non-permanent land-use offsets.

• Carbon markets have failed to lead to higher commitments and have instead created an 11 gigatonne 'Hot Air' loophole under the Kyoto Protocol, which undermines the treaty's viability.
• There are four main sources of 'hot air' that threaten the Paris climate treaty: surplus allowances from Emission Trading Systems caused by weak targets, double counting of emission reductions, non-additional carbon credits, and non-permanent carbon offsets in agriculture and forestry.
• Evidence suggests significant failures in Kyoto's offsetting mechanisms: one study indicates up to 70% of Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) credits issued between 2013 and 2020 may not be real reductions, and Joint Implementation (JI) offsets have increased global emissions by 600 million tonnes of CO2.
• To avoid hot air trading, the Paris agreement should restrict international market mechanisms to countries with ambitious targets, implement a robust international account framework and MRV system, replace offset credits with financial support for developing countries, and prohibit non-permanent land use offsets.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (2015). Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/International-hot-air_final.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement. 2015. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/International-hot-air_final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement |date=November 2015 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/International-hot-air_final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatch2015avoiding, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2015}, month = nov, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/11/International-hot-air_final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }