Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement

The policy brief warns that the Kyoto Protocol's market mechanisms created an 11 gigatonne 'hot air' loophole due to inflated greenhouse gas estimates, particularly in Eastern European countries. It argues that allowing the carry-over of these credits or early action credits into the post-2020 Paris agreement would undermine climate goals and fail to drive real mitigation. The author recommends that eligibility for market mechanisms be restricted to parties with ambitious, quantified carbon budgets and that early action in developing countries be supported through new climate finance rather than credits.

• The Kyoto Protocol's market mechanisms resulted in an 11 gigatonne 'hot air' loophole, where countries—primarily in Eastern Europe—received surplus pollution credits based on inflated greenhouse gas release estimates rather than actual mitigation.
• The European Union utilized over 600 million hot air permits to meet Kyoto targets instead of achieving deeper emissions reductions, with over 550 million used by the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) and over 50 million bought by EU countries between 2008 and 2012.
• Allowing early action credits (mitigation measures taken before 2020) to count toward post-2020 targets is discouraged because it is difficult to verify their environmental quality and may lead to double counting or the funding of dubious projects.
• To prevent future 'hot air', the document recommends that the Paris agreement prohibit the carry-over of pre-2020 internationally traded units and restrict market mechanism eligibility to parties with ambitious, absolute emission reduction targets based on historical reference levels and multi-year CO2 budgets.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (n.d.). Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Hot-air-in-the-2015-Paris-agreement_clean_FINAL.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement. n.d. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Hot-air-in-the-2015-Paris-agreement_clean_FINAL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Hot-air-in-the-2015-Paris-agreement_clean_FINAL.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatchndavoiding, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{Avoiding hot air in the 2015 Paris agreement}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2015/08/Hot-air-in-the-2015-Paris-agreement_clean_FINAL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }