Empty targets?

The briefing warns that up to 40 billion carbon credits lacking environmental integrity could undermine the Paris Agreement. These include legacy units from the Kyoto Protocol's CDM, JI, and IET mechanisms, as well as projected 'hot air' from NDCs set above business-as-usual levels. The author advocates for strict rules on the timing of reductions, the transferability of credits from weak targets, and the use of old credits to ensure the 1.5°C goal is not compromised.

• The Kyoto Protocol's three carbon markets have generated a massive volume of credits that may not represent real emission reductions, including approximately four billion potential extra units from the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM), 220 million units from Joint Implementation (JI), and 14.1 billion Assigned Amount Units (AAUs) from International Emissions Trading (IET).
• A significant portion of CDM and JI credits lack environmental value; 72% of CDM credits are estimated to be from non-additional projects, and 80% of ERUs from the JI mechanism have been found to have little or no environmental value.
• Current Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) under the Paris Agreement may create new 'hot air' because some targets are set above business-as-usual emission levels, potentially generating between 18.7 and 28.3 GtCO2e of credits without actual emission reductions.
• Between 50 and 73 countries are estimated to have hot air in their NDCs, with the Russian Federation holding the largest share, representing approximately 20% of the total.
• The failure of the Doha amendment to enter into force has left uncertainty regarding the use of 14 billion CP1 AAUs post-2020, and some countries, such as Australia, have indicated they intend to use these surplus units to meet Paris targets.
• In a worst-case scenario, the combination of legacy Kyoto credits and new NDC hot air could introduce up to 40 billion credits without real emission reductions into the Paris Agreement era.
• To protect the environmental integrity of the Paris Agreement, the document proposes four measures: restricting NDC credits to reductions occurring after 2020, banning the transfer of credits from targets set below business-as-usual levels, preventing the carry-over of hot air between NDC periods, and prohibiting the use of credits from a decade or more prior.

APA

Carbon Market Watch (2019). Empty targets? https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMPTY-TARGETS-HOW-TO-AVOID-TRADING-OF-HOT-AIR-UNDER-THE-PARIS-AGREEMENT-1.pdf

Chicago

Carbon Market Watch. Empty targets? 2019. https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMPTY-TARGETS-HOW-TO-AVOID-TRADING-OF-HOT-AIR-UNDER-THE-PARIS-AGREEMENT-1.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Carbon Market Watch |title=Empty targets? |date=December 2019 |url=https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMPTY-TARGETS-HOW-TO-AVOID-TRADING-OF-HOT-AIR-UNDER-THE-PARIS-AGREEMENT-1.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{carbonmarketwatch2019empty, author = {{Carbon Market Watch}}, title = {{Empty targets?}}, institution = {Carbon Market Watch}, year = {2019}, month = dec, url = {https://carbonmarketwatch.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/12/EMPTY-TARGETS-HOW-TO-AVOID-TRADING-OF-HOT-AIR-UNDER-THE-PARIS-AGREEMENT-1.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }