THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative and the Pontifical Catholic University of Rio de Janeiro (CPI/PUC-Rio) examines how deforestation in the Amazon Rainforest triggers a 'domino effect' of degradation in distant areas by disrupting the water cycle and 'flying rivers'. Using a climate-forest model, the authors demonstrate that deforestation reduces rainfall downwind, leading to further tree death and potentially pushing the forest toward a tipping point and climate collapse.

• The Amazon Rainforest is at risk of reaching a tipping point that could lead to a climate collapse and the loss of most of its vegetation. The emission of carbon from the loss of 400 billion trees would be equivalent to five years of global emissions, making the goal of limiting global warming to 1.5°C impossible.
• Current data indicates that nearly 20% of the Amazon's original area has been deforested, and an additional 20% has been impacted by degradation, which reduces the forest's capacity for carbon storage and sequestration.
• Forest degradation is a primary driver of carbon emissions from tropical forests, accounting for nearly 70% of these emissions between 2003 and 2014, while deforestation accounted for 30%.
• A 'domino effect' exists where deforestation disrupts the water cycle and the 'flying rivers' mechanism, which recycles approximately half of the Amazon's rainfall. When trees are removed, less water is transpired into the atmosphere, reducing rainfall in downwind regions and causing trees in those distant areas to die from lack of water.
• A climate-forest model developed by CPI/PUC-Rio found that, on average, for every 100 trees deforested, an additional 22 trees die in distant regions due to water scarcity.
• The report presents two 30-year scenarios: in Scenario A, if deforestation stops at the current 20% level, an additional 13% of the forest will still be lost to degradation. In Scenario B, if deforestation reaches a 40% threshold, it could trigger a climate collapse resulting in the loss of over 60% of vegetation density.

APA

ARAUJO, R., & MOURÃO, J. (2023). THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf

Chicago

ARAUJO, RAFAEL, and JOÃO MOURÃO. THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ARAUJO |first1=RAFAEL |last2=MOURÃO |first2=JOÃO |title=THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=July 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{araujo2023amazon, author = {ARAUJO, RAFAEL and MOURÃO, JOÃO}, title = {{THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }