THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT

The report by CPI/PUC-Rio details a climate-forest model showing that Amazon deforestation causes degradation in distant forest regions by reducing the 'flying rivers' of recycled humidity. The model finds that for every 100 trees deforested, an average of 22 additional trees die from water scarcity. The authors warn that if deforestation reaches a 40% threshold, the Amazon could lose over 60% of its vegetation density, resulting in a climate collapse and carbon emissions equivalent to five years of global emissions.

• The Amazon rainforest is at risk of a tipping point where the loss of 400 billion trees would release carbon emissions equivalent to five years of global emissions, making the 1.5°C global warming limit impossible to achieve.
• Deforestation triggers a 'domino effect' of degradation because trees recycle approximately half of the Amazon's rainfall through transpiration; fewer trees reduce the humidity transported downwind via 'flying rivers', causing distant trees to die from lack of water.
• A climate-forest model developed by CPI/PUC-Rio indicates that, on average, the deforestation of 100 trees results in the death of 22 additional trees in distant regions due to water scarcity.
• Current deforestation levels (approximately 20%) could lead to an additional 13% of the forest becoming degraded over the next 30 years, even if all further deforestation stops.
• If deforestation reaches a threshold of 40%, the Amazon could experience a climate collapse characterized by a loss of over 60% of its vegetation density within 30 years.
• Forest degradation is a more significant driver of carbon emissions than deforestation, accounting for nearly 70% of global tropical forest carbon emissions between 2003 and 2014.

APA

ARAUJO, R., & MOURÃO, J. (2023). THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf

Chicago

ARAUJO, RAFAEL, and JOÃO MOURÃO. THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ARAUJO |first1=RAFAEL |last2=MOURÃO |first2=JOÃO |title=THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=July 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{araujo2023amazon, author = {ARAUJO, RAFAEL and MOURÃO, JOÃO}, title = {{THE AMAZON DOMINO EFFECT}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = jul, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/INSIGHT-Domino-Effect.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }