Guidelines to Assess the Direct and Indirect Area of Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Projects

The guide details a market access methodology that shifts from simple geographical distance buffers to a model incorporating transportation costs, market size, and land conversion data. By converting infrastructure networks into graphs, the approach can simulate how new roads or bridges change market connectivity and subsequently drive deforestation. The document includes a practical example in Amapá, Brazil, demonstrating how a fictional road could lead to an estimated 368 km2 of deforestation and 17 million tons of CO2 emissions.

• The market access methodology is presented as a superior alternative to traditional geographical distance buffers because it accounts for social and economic dynamics, specifically how a project connects different markets rather than just its physical outline.
• The methodology relies on three core components: transportation costs (the cost of connecting markets), market size (represented by population or production value), and land conversion (measured via deforestation data).
• Transportation networks are modeled as graphs (nodes and edges), allowing for the flexible inclusion of various modes such as roads, railroads, waterways, and ports, as well as specific costs like loading fees or tolls.
• The 'fishbone pattern' of deforestation occurs when new roads enable the creation of secondary legal or illegal roads in surrounding regions, often due to a lack of oversight in protected areas.
• The relationship between market access and deforestation can be estimated using a log-linear statistical model, where the coefficient determines the percentage increase in deforestation resulting from a 1% increase in market access.
• Carbon footprints can be calculated by overlapping deforestation data with carbon stock maps or by using average emission factors, such as the Amazon Fund's estimate of 48,510 tons of CO2 per km2.
• In a simplified application for the state of Amapá, a fictional road was estimated to cause 368 km2 of deforestation (approximately 2.2 km2 per km of road) and the release of 17 million tons of CO2.

APA

Araujo, R. (2023). Guidelines to Assess the Direct and Indirect Area of Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Projects. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-EN.pdf

Chicago

Araujo, Rafael. Guidelines to Assess the Direct and Indirect Area of Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Projects. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-EN.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Araujo |first1=Rafael |title=Guidelines to Assess the Direct and Indirect Area of Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Projects |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=February 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-EN.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{araujo2023guidelines, author = {Araujo, Rafael}, title = {{Guidelines to Assess the Direct and Indirect Area of Influence of Transportation Infrastructure Projects}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = feb, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/02/Guidelines-Infra-EN.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }