Potenciais riscos de implementação para o piloto do leilão de eficiência energética em Roraima

The report evaluates a pilot energy efficiency auction proposed by ANEEL for Boa Vista, Roraima. It identifies five primary risks: the 'winner's curse' due to the closed-envelope bidding format, measurement and verification (M&V) failures, underutilization of EE potential due to treatment group restrictions, lack of incentive for energy distributors to promote rational energy use, and limited external validity for national replication. The authors suggest adopting open second-price auctions and synthetic control methods for M&V to mitigate these risks.

• The proposed closed-envelope auction format may lead to the 'winner's curse,' where the winning bid is higher than the asset's value or the winner is less capable than other participants, potentially resulting in losses for proponents or failure to deliver expected EE actions.
• The chosen M&V methodology based on randomization and 'Differences in Differences' risks failing if there is 'contamination'—where the control group independently adopts EE measures—or if other parallel EE policies exist in the city.
• Restricting EE actions only to the treatment group to satisfy M&V requirements may prevent the full exploration of the region's energy efficiency potential; the authors suggest 'synthetic control' as an alternative to allow wider adoption.
• There is a fundamental misalignment of interests because energy distributors, who would buy the avoided energy credits, have revenues tied to total electricity consumption, creating a disincentive to promote energy efficiency.
• The Roraima pilot may lack external validity for replication across Brazil because Boa Vista's characteristics differ significantly from other cities, and the state is uniquely isolated from the National Interconnected System (SIN).
• The auction design focuses exclusively on the quantity of avoided energy, meaning it does not incentivize projects that shift energy consumption to off-peak hours without reducing total consumption.

APA

Schutze, A., Holz, R., & Assunção, J. (2020). Potenciais riscos de implementação para o piloto do leilão de eficiência energética em Roraima. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Destaque-Potenciais-riscos-de-implementacao-para-o-piloto-do-leilao-de-eficiencia-energetica-de-Roraima.pdf

Chicago

Schutze, Amanda, Rhayana Holz, and Juliano Assunção. Potenciais riscos de implementação para o piloto do leilão de eficiência energética em Roraima. Climate Policy Initiative, 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Destaque-Potenciais-riscos-de-implementacao-para-o-piloto-do-leilao-de-eficiencia-energetica-de-Roraima.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Schutze |first1=Amanda |last2=Holz |first2=Rhayana |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=Potenciais riscos de implementação para o piloto do leilão de eficiência energética em Roraima |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=August 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Destaque-Potenciais-riscos-de-implementacao-para-o-piloto-do-leilao-de-eficiencia-energetica-de-Roraima.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{schutze2020potenciais, author = {Schutze, Amanda and Holz, Rhayana and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{Potenciais riscos de implementação para o piloto do leilão de eficiência energética em Roraima}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = aug, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/08/Destaque-Potenciais-riscos-de-implementacao-para-o-piloto-do-leilao-de-eficiencia-energetica-de-Roraima.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }