What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga?

The report identifies the Caatinga biome in Northeast Brazil as highly vulnerable to climate change, with family farmers bearing the brunt of climate risks. It finds that increased aridity leads to disproportionately high productivity losses in beans, corn, and cattle compared to other Brazilian biomes. Beyond agricultural losses, the report establishes a correlation between increased aridity and worsening socioeconomic indicators, including higher poverty rates, increased child mortality, higher school delay rates, and rising unemployment.

• The Caatinga biome is one of the six most vulnerable areas globally to climate variability and experiences more frequent and intense drought processes than other Brazilian biomes. Average annual precipitation in the region is 930mm, which is 39% lower than in other biomes, and desertification is already underway in 12.8% of the semi-arid region.
• Agricultural productivity in the Caatinga is historically lower than in other Brazilian biomes and has shown little to no growth over the last three decades for corn and beans, while cattle productivity has declined, widening the gap with other regions.
• Agricultural production in the Caatinga is highly sensitive to climate shocks. A one-unit increase in the aridity index results in a 16% productivity drop for beans (compared to 6% in other biomes), a 35% drop for corn (compared to 16% in other biomes), and a 9% drop for cattle (compared to a 1% increase in other biomes).
• Family farmers are the most exposed group to climate risk, managing 79% of rural establishments in the Caatinga (1.36 million properties). They face significant barriers, including low access to technical assistance (8%), high illiteracy rates (53%), and a heavy reliance on cisterns for water (72%).
• Municipalities with a high concentration of family farming (over 90% of rural area) suffer significantly higher productivity losses during drought events than those with low family farming concentrations (under 10%). Specifically, losses for corn reach 32% in high-concentration areas compared to 19% in low-concentration areas.
• Increased aridity in the Caatinga is correlated with severe immediate and long-term socioeconomic declines. A one-unit increase in the aridity index is associated with a 7% loss in per capita income, a 9% increase in the Gini index (inequality), and a 13% increase in the proportion of people living in poverty.
• Climate shocks in the Caatinga have significant long-term impacts on health, education, and employment. A one-unit increase in the aridity index correlates with a 10% increase in the child mortality rate, a 19% increase in school delay rates for primary education, and a 20% increase in the unemployment rate for people aged 18 or over.

APA

de Albuquerque, A., Castro, P., & Assunão, J. (2023). What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf

Chicago

de Albuquerque, Amanda, Pablo Castro, and Juliano Assunão. What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Albuquerque |first1=Amanda |last2=Castro |first2=Pablo |last3=Assunão |first3=Juliano |title=What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=August 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dealbuquerque2023what, author = {de Albuquerque, Amanda and Castro, Pablo and Assunão, Juliano}, title = {{What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }