What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga?

The report identifies the Caatinga biome in Northeast Brazil as highly vulnerable to climate change, with family farmers facing the greatest risks. Using an aridity index, the study demonstrates that increased drought leads to significant relative productivity losses in beans, corn, and cattle compared to other Brazilian biomes. These climate shocks are correlated with severe socioeconomic declines, including increased poverty, child mortality, school delay, and unemployment. The authors argue that a 'rural just transition' in the region must integrate social development policies with the adoption of low-carbon agricultural technologies to increase the resilience of the most exposed producers.

• The Caatinga biome is characterized by higher and more variable aridity levels than other Brazilian biomes, meaning it faces "more frequent, but also more intense drought processes."
• Agricultural productivity in the Caatinga is historically lower than in other biomes and has shown little to no growth over the last 30 years, with a specific decline in cattle productivity.
• The Caatinga's agricultural production is more sensitive to climate shocks than other biomes; a one-unit increase in the aridity index causes a 16% drop in bean productivity, a 35% drop in corn productivity, and a 9% drop in cattle productivity.
• Family farmers are the most exposed group to climate risk, managing 79% of rural establishments in the Caatinga. Municipalities with a high concentration of family farming (over 90% of rural area) suffer significantly higher productivity losses during droughts than those with low concentrations.
• Increased aridity in the Caatinga is correlated with immediate socioeconomic declines: a one-unit increase in the aridity index is associated with a 7% loss in per capita income, a 9% increase in the Gini index, and a 13% increase in the proportion of people living in poverty.
• Climate shocks in the Caatinga have severe long-term human development impacts, with a one-unit increase in the aridity index correlating to a 10% increase in child mortality, a 19% increase in primary education school delay rates, and a 20% increase in the unemployment rate for those aged 18 or over.
• Family farmers in the Caatinga face significant barriers to resilience, including low access to technical assistance (8%), high illiteracy (53%), and heavy reliance on cisterns for water (72%).

APA

de Albuquerque, A., Castro, P., & Assunção, J. (2023). What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf

Chicago

de Albuquerque, Amanda, Pablo Castro, and Juliano Assunção. What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=de Albuquerque |first1=Amanda |last2=Castro |first2=Pablo |last3=Assunção |first3=Juliano |title=What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga? |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=August 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{dealbuquerque2023what, author = {de Albuquerque, Amanda and Castro, Pablo and Assunção, Juliano}, title = {{What is the Climate Risk for Rural Producers in the Caatinga?}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = aug, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/08/Climate-Risk-in-the-Caatinga.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }