CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA

The report argues that a carbon price of US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured would incentivize a shift from cattle ranching to forest restoration in the Brazilian Amazon. This transition could capture 16 Gt of CO2 and avoid 32 Gt of emissions over 30 years, generating US$ 320 billion in revenue. The analysis contrasts this with a historical implicit valuation of US$ 5.76 per ton, which the authors suggest leads toward a critical tipping point of deforestation.

• A carbon price exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured through natural regeneration would make forest restoration more profitable than cattle ranching across nearly the entire Brazilian Amazon, potentially capturing 16 Gt of CO2 over the next 30 years.
• The combined climate impact of large-scale restoration and avoided deforestation at a US$ 20 carbon price is estimated at 48 billion tons of CO2 over 30 years, consisting of 16 Gt from restoration and 32 Gt from avoided emissions.
• Financial returns from carbon credits at US$ 20 per ton would generate US$ 320 billion over 30 years, which the report states would more than compensate for the loss of revenue from cattle ranching.
• The model estimates that the implicit historical valuation of the forest by Brazil up to 2008 was US$ 5.76 per ton of CO2; if this valuation persists, deforestation could reach 30%, surpassing the scientific tipping point of 20-25% in just over a decade.
• There is a significant disparity between the economic contribution of the Brazilian Amazon to the national GDP (less than 9%) and its contribution to national greenhouse gas emissions (approximately 50%).
• The proposed US$ 20 price is considered low compared to regulated markets, such as the European cap-and-trade market, where average prices in the first half of 2023 were approximately US$ 90 per ton of CO2.
• The Brazilian Amazon has shown a strong capacity for natural regeneration, with 10 million hectares currently in natural regeneration and 7.2 million hectares in an advanced process of regeneration (over six years).

APA

ASSUNÇÃO, J., & SCHEINKMAN, J. A. (2023). CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf

Chicago

ASSUNÇÃO, JULIANO, and JOSÉ ALEXANDRE SCHEINKMAN. CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ASSUNÇÃO |first1=JULIANO |last2=SCHEINKMAN |first2=JOSÉ ALEXANDRE |title=CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=September 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2023carbono, author = {ASSUNÇÃO, JULIANO and SCHEINKMAN, JOSÉ ALEXANDRE}, title = {{CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }