CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA

This report by the Climate Policy Initiative analyzes the economic viability of replacing extensive cattle ranching with large-scale forest restoration in the Brazilian Amazon through carbon credits. It proposes that a carbon price of US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured via natural regeneration would make restoration more profitable than ranching across most of the region, potentially capturing 16 Gt of CO2 and avoiding 32 Gt of emissions over 30 years.

• A carbon price exceeding US$ 20 per ton of CO2 captured through natural regeneration would make forest restoration more profitable than cattle ranching in nearly the entire Brazilian Amazon, effectively halting deforestation and promoting forest recovery.
• Over a 30-year period, a US$ 20 per ton carbon price could result in a total climate benefit of 48 Gt of CO2, consisting of 16 Gt captured through forest restoration and 32 Gt of avoided emissions from prevented deforestation.
• The financial revenue generated by carbon credits at US$ 20 per ton is estimated at US$ 320 billion over 30 years, which would more than compensate for the loss of income from cattle ranching.
• Without a robust carbon payment mechanism, the report predicts that deforestation incentives from cattle ranching expansion will persist, potentially leading the Amazon to reach a 'point of no return' in less than 20 years and emitting approximately 32 billion tons of CO2 over the next 30 years.
• The Brazilian Amazon exhibits a significant misalignment between its economic contribution and its carbon emissions; it contributes less than 9% of Brazil's GDP but accounts for approximately 50% of the country's greenhouse gas emissions.
• The model suggests that the implicit valuation of the forest by Brazil up until 2008 was approximately US$ 5.76 per ton of CO2. If this valuation persists, deforestation could reach 30%, surpassing the scientific 'point of no return' estimated at 20-25%.
• The proposed US$ 20 price is considered a low baseline for negotiation, especially when compared to European emission permits which were trading at approximately US$ 90 per ton of CO2 in the first half of 2023.

APA

ASSUNÇÃO, J., & SCHEINKMAN, J. A. (2023). CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA. Climate Policy Initiative. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf

Chicago

ASSUNÇÃO, JULIANO, and JOSÉ ALEXANDRE SCHEINKMAN. CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA. Climate Policy Initiative, 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=ASSUNÇÃO |first1=JULIANO |last2=SCHEINKMAN |first2=JOSÉ ALEXANDRE |title=CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA |publisher=Climate Policy Initiative |date=September 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{assuno2023carbono, author = {ASSUNÇÃO, JULIANO and SCHEINKMAN, JOSÉ ALEXANDRE}, title = {{CARBONO E O DESTINO DA AMAZÔNIA}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = sep, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2023/09/Carbono-e-o-Destino-da-Amazonia.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }