Assessing Bottom-Up Climate Finance Needs Methodology

The report outlines a systematic approach to estimating bottom-up climate finance needs by extracting data from 167 NDCs. It distinguishes bottom-up needs—finance required by countries to reach national targets—from top-down needs, which are derived from predictive models for 1.5°C pathways. The methodology involves standardizing diverse data on sector classification, timeframes, and currency (converting to 2023 USD), while categorizing finance as unconditional (domestic) or conditional (international). The document acknowledges significant data gaps, noting that less than half of the reviewed NDCs provide fully costed needs, and that current bottom-up estimates are insufficient to align with a net-zero pathway.

• CPI distinguishes between top-down climate finance needs, which use predictive models to align with a 1.5°C pathway, and bottom-up needs, which are the finance required by countries to reach national targets as stated in official documents like NDCs.
• Bottom-up climate finance needs are materially lower than top-down needs because the cumulative commitments in current NDCs are insufficient to align with a net-zero pathway.
• The methodology for the bottom-up database involved reviewing the latest NDCs from 167 UNFCCC Parties, with a cutoff date of September 30, 2025; this included 63 parties that had submitted updated NDC 3.0 versions.
• Data granularity in NDCs varies significantly, with 51 non-Annex I countries providing project- or action-level needs, while 41 non-Annex I countries and 12 Annex I countries quantified no needs at all.
• To ensure comparability, CPI standardized all investment needs to 2023 USD billion and matched sector data to the Global Landscape of Climate Finance (GLCF) taxonomy, excluding non-climate solutions such as new fossil fuel power plants.
• The analysis categorizes finance needs into three types: unconditional (domestic resources), conditional (international financial support), and unspecified.
• There is a significant gap in data coverage by climate objective; only 75 NDCs were found to be fully costed for both mitigation and adaptation.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2025). Assessing Bottom-Up Climate Finance Needs Methodology. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Assessing-Bottom-Up-Climate-Finance.pdf

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Assessing Bottom-Up Climate Finance Needs Methodology. 2025. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Assessing-Bottom-Up-Climate-Finance.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Assessing Bottom-Up Climate Finance Needs Methodology |date=November 2025 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Assessing-Bottom-Up-Climate-Finance.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2025assessing, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Assessing Bottom-Up Climate Finance Needs Methodology}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/10/Assessing-Bottom-Up-Climate-Finance.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }