Understanding the Impact of a Low-Carbon Transition on Uganda's Planned Oil Industry

This research paper analyzes the declining economic value of Uganda's planned oil industry in the Albertine Basin, specifically examining the oilfields, the East African Crude Oil Pipeline, and the Hoima oil refinery in the context of a low-carbon transition.

• Since the signing of an initial agreement in 2013, the value of Uganda's oil reserves has decreased by more than $40 billion, representing a drop of over 70% to a value of $18.1 billion. If a low-carbon transition aligned with the Paris Agreement goals occurs, the value of the oil is projected to fall to 88% of its value from seven years prior.
• Uganda's oil industry development was based on the 2006 confirmation of commercially recoverable oil in the Albertine Basin, with approximately 1.6 billion barrels of reserves. Based on CPI's long-term oil price projection from the original planned Final Investment Decision (FID) of 2015, these reserves could have been worth $61 billion.
• Despite expectations that oil exploitation would lead to middle income status, jobs, fuel security, and foreign currency revenues, first oil had not flowed by the end of 2020 due to investment delays and volatility in global oil markets.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2020). Understanding the Impact of a Low-Carbon Transition on Uganda's Planned Oil Industry. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/understanding-the-impact-of-a-low-carbon-transition-on-ugandas-plannedoil-industry/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Understanding the Impact of a Low-Carbon Transition on Uganda's Planned Oil Industry. 2020. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/understanding-the-impact-of-a-low-carbon-transition-on-ugandas-plannedoil-industry/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Understanding the Impact of a Low-Carbon Transition on Uganda's Planned Oil Industry |date=2 December 2020 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/understanding-the-impact-of-a-low-carbon-transition-on-ugandas-plannedoil-industry/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2020understanding, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Understanding the Impact of a Low-Carbon Transition on Uganda's Planned Oil Industry}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2020}, month = dec, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/understanding-the-impact-of-a-low-carbon-transition-on-ugandas-plannedoil-industry/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }