Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon

This research paper proposes a spatial multiplier model to estimate how forest disturbances in the Amazon are amplified and propagated to other regions via atmospheric flow. The study finds that wind-mediated cascading effects double the average impact of initial damage, with some regions experiencing amplification up to 250%.

• The researchers developed a model using a single matrix as a spatial multiplier to estimate the spread of forest disturbance effects. This model incorporates a spatial component for cascading effects from neighboring regions and a temporal component for the persistence of local disturbances, allowing policymakers to map where initial damage is amplified and propagated.
• Cascading effects mediated by winds in the Amazon typically double the impact of initial damage on average, though this varies by region. In some areas, damage does not propagate, while in others, the amplification can reach 250%. The authors state that because the model only considers wind-mediated spillovers, the average multiplier of 2 represents a lower bound.

APA

Climate Policy Initiative (2023). Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/estimating-the-spatial-amplification-of-damage-caused-by-degradation-in-the-amazon/

Chicago

Climate Policy Initiative. Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon. 2023. https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/estimating-the-spatial-amplification-of-damage-caused-by-degradation-in-the-amazon/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Policy Initiative |title=Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon |date=13 November 2023 |url=https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/estimating-the-spatial-amplification-of-damage-caused-by-degradation-in-the-amazon/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatepolicyinitiative2023estimating, author = {{Climate Policy Initiative}}, title = {{Estimating the spatial amplification of damage caused by degradation in the Amazon}}, institution = {Climate Policy Initiative}, year = {2023}, month = nov, url = {https://www.climatepolicyinitiative.org/publication/estimating-the-spatial-amplification-of-damage-caused-by-degradation-in-the-amazon/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }