Energy Innovation and System Transition in India: What do models tell us?

The report examines India's energy transition, comparing three models (MARKAL, EPS, and E3ME-FTT) to project electricity demand and the optimal generation mix for deep decarbonisation by 2050. It argues that decarbonisation is compatible with economic growth, potentially creating millions of net jobs and providing environmental co-benefits like reduced air pollution and water savings. However, it highlights significant risks, including land scarcity for solar projects, the need for massive green finance, and the challenge of a just transition for coal-dependent regions.

• India's electricity demand is projected to grow significantly by 2050, with all three models predicting a surge of at least 2.5 times between 2030 and 2050 in decarbonisation scenarios due to the electrification of industry, transport, and buildings.
• All models agree on a necessary phasedown of coal, projecting its share in electricity generation will drop from 70% to below 50% by 2030 and to less than 10% by 2050, although none suggest a complete phaseout by 2050 to maintain grid stability.
• Solar energy is projected to be the dominant technology by 2050, with a share of over 40% in all models; the E3ME-FTT model specifically predicts it could reach over 60% due to 'learning-by-doing' cost reductions.
• The MARKAL and EPS models suggest a more significant role for wind energy (around 35% by 2050) compared to E3ME-FTT, arguing that wind's complementary generation profile to solar reduces the need for expensive battery storage and grid flexibility.
• Decarbonisation is expected to have a positive impact on the labour market, with EPS and E3ME-FTT projecting the creation of 3-6 million net jobs by 2050, primarily in electricity utilities, construction, and services.
• The transition poses a significant risk to coal-dependent regions, with over 2 million jobs at risk due to the fossil fuel phaseout, necessitating economic diversification and worker reskilling in eastern India.
• India faces a massive financing gap for its energy transition, requiring an estimated average of US$160 billion annually until 2030 and a cumulative US$10.1 trillion to reach net zero by 2070.
• Green hydrogen production is a key industrial decarbonisation strategy with a target of 5 million metric tons annually by 2030, requiring an estimated cumulative investment of US$1.5 trillion.
• Decarbonisation offers substantial environmental co-benefits, including a potential reduction of PM2.5 emissions by half by 2050, which could avoid 5.8 million premature deaths, and a 30% decline in water consumption by moving away from thermal power.

APA

Kapur, V., Melekh, Y., Agarwal, V., Chaudhury, S., Hinder, B., Pasqualino, R., NIJSSE, F., Kelkar, U., Agarwal, S. S., Bose, R., Pandey, A., & McGovern, M. (2023). Energy Innovation and System Transition in India: What do models tell us? Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/EEIST-India-Country-Report.pdf

Chicago

Kapur, Vidhu, Yaroslav Melekh, Varun Agarwal, Saswata Chaudhury, Ben Hinder, Roberto Pasqualino, FEMKE NIJSSE, et al. Energy Innovation and System Transition in India: What do models tell us? Climate Strategies, 2023. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/EEIST-India-Country-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Kapur |first1=Vidhu |last2=Melekh |first2=Yaroslav |last3=Agarwal |first3=Varun |last4=Chaudhury |first4=Saswata |last5=Hinder |first5=Ben |last6=Pasqualino |first6=Roberto |last7=NIJSSE |first7=FEMKE |last8=Kelkar |first8=Ulka |last9=Agarwal |first9=Sanchit S. |display-authors=etal |title=Energy Innovation and System Transition in India: What do models tell us? |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=2023 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/EEIST-India-Country-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{kapur2023energy, author = {Kapur, Vidhu and Melekh, Yaroslav and Agarwal, Varun and Chaudhury, Saswata and Hinder, Ben and Pasqualino, Roberto and NIJSSE, FEMKE and Kelkar, Ulka and Agarwal, Sanchit S. and Bose, Raktimava and Pandey, Arpita and McGovern, Michael}, title = {{Energy Innovation and System Transition in India: What do models tell us?}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2023}, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2024/04/EEIST-India-Country-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }