Political Economy of Net Zero: Brazil

The briefing outlines the political and structural challenges Brazil faces in achieving net-zero emissions, focusing on land use, agriculture, transport, carbon markets, waste management, and industry. It argues that climate policies must be aligned with national development and income generation to overcome weak governance and industry opposition. The report highlights specific opportunities for international funding, such as supporting biomethane, nature-based solutions in carbon markets, and technology transfer for industrial decarbonization and waste sorting.

• Land use, land use change, and forestry (LULUCF) were the largest source of emissions in 2020, accounting for 46% of Brazil's total. Deforestation in the Amazon increased by 22% between 2020 and 2021 and 75% between 2018 and 2021, with over 98% of this deforestation occurring illegally.
• The agricultural sector contributed 27% of total emissions in 2020, with cattle-raising responsible for 75% of those emissions. While the ABC+ policy targets greenhouse gas reductions, it primarily focuses on small producers and the sector is currently excluded from Brazil's zero methane plan due to industry opposition.
• Road transport is the dominant mode of cargo shipment in Brazil, representing over 65% of shipments. Potential for emissions reductions exists through the deployment of biomethane, fleet electrification, and shifting cargo to rail and waterways, though this is hindered by insufficient infrastructure investment and unreliable electricity supply.
• Brazil lacks a mandatory carbon market, though the government is developing policies for both voluntary (Presidential Decree 11,075/22) and mandatory (Draft Bill 2,148/2015) systems. Success depends on improving digital infrastructure for monitoring emissions and ensuring the integrity of voluntary markets.
• Waste management presents a significant emissions reduction opportunity, as 40% of solid urban waste is currently sent to open-air dumps and landfills, and only 3% is recycled. Biogas from waste could potentially replace 70% of Brazil's diesel consumption and supply 35% of its electricity needs.
• Industrial emissions are primarily concentrated in iron and steel (38%) and cement (22%). Decarbonization in these sectors requires substituting high-carbon inputs and fuels, with opportunities for international cooperation in green and blue hydrogen and carbon capture and storage (CCS).

APA

Breviglieri, G. V., Lefèvre, G. B., & Osório, G. I. D. S. (2022). Political Economy of Net Zero: Brazil. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CS_Briefing-notes_Brazil-09-09.pdf

Chicago

Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso, Guilherme Borba Lefèvre, and Guarany Ipê do Sol Osório. Political Economy of Net Zero: Brazil. Climate Strategies, 2022. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CS_Briefing-notes_Brazil-09-09.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Breviglieri |first1=Gustavo Velloso |last2=Lefèvre |first2=Guilherme Borba |last3=Osório |first3=Guarany Ipê do Sol |title=Political Economy of Net Zero: Brazil |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=June 2022 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CS_Briefing-notes_Brazil-09-09.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{breviglieri2022political, author = {Breviglieri, Gustavo Velloso and Lefèvre, Guilherme Borba and Osório, Guarany Ipê do Sol}, title = {{Political Economy of Net Zero: Brazil}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2022}, month = jun, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2022/09/CS_Briefing-notes_Brazil-09-09.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }