Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects from registration to CER issuance

The study finds that CDM projects generally overestimate their emission reduction potential, with actual CER issuance reaching only 76% of the amount predicted at registration. Performance varies significantly by project type, with N2O projects over-performing (129%) and animal waste projects under-performing (28%). The analysis also indicates that in-house project development generally outperforms the use of large external consultancies, and that India showed the best host-country performance (122%) compared to China (55%) and Brazil (90%).

• On average, the volume of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) actually issued for the analyzed projects reached only 76% of the amount predicted at the registration stage, with 64.8 million tonnes issued compared to a forecast of 85.2 million tonnes per year.
• Project type is a critical determinant of performance: N2O projects were the most successful, issuing 29% more CERs than expected, while animal waste projects were the worst performing, with issuance reaching only 28% of forecasts.
• Host country performance varied significantly, with India performing best at 122%, followed by Brazil at 90% and China at 55%, a trend strongly influenced by the specific types of projects (such as HFC-23 and N2O) implemented in those countries.
• Project size influences the accuracy of forecasts; very small projects (below 20 thousand tonnes CO2 equivalent) and very large projects (above 540 thousand tonnes) generally perform better than medium-sized projects.
• Projects developed in-house (99% performance) tended to be more accurate in their CER estimations than those developed by large consultancies, such as Ernst & Young (87%), Econergy (63%), and AgCert (18%).

APA

Mayr, S., & Michaelowa, A. (2008). Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects from registration to CER issuance. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-performance-mayr-03-08.pdf

Chicago

Mayr, Sebastian, and Axel Michaelowa. Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects from registration to CER issuance. Climate Strategies, 2008. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-performance-mayr-03-08.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Mayr |first1=Sebastian |last2=Michaelowa |first2=Axel |title=Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects from registration to CER issuance |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=March 2008 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-performance-mayr-03-08.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{mayr2008empirical, author = {Mayr, Sebastian and Michaelowa, Axel}, title = {{Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects from registration to CER issuance}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2008}, month = mar, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-performance-mayr-03-08.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }