Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study India

The analysis of 23 Indian CDM projects reveals a consistent gap between optimistic initial forecasts and actual CER issuance, with an average reduction of 23.1% in forecasted CERs till 2012. The study finds that additionality argumentation is often poor, frequently lacking independent evidence and relying on unconvincing investment barriers. Furthermore, stakeholder consultation processes are often superficial, frequently conflating general regulatory permits with CDM-specific engagement, and the delivery of sustainability benefits remains largely unquantified and insufficiently monitored.

• Actual CER issuance is consistently lower than initial projections, with the forecasted amount of CERs until 2012 decreasing by an average of 23.1% between the validation and issuance stages.
• All projects in the sample that claimed credits after registration experienced a delay of more than six months in the start of their crediting period, with all such delays occurring between the validation and registration phases.
• Additionality argumentation in the sampled projects is generally weak; only five of the 23 projects consistently used independent evidence to support their claims, and 11 projects provided no independent sources at all.
• While 70% of projects cited investment barriers to prove additionality, the study found these arguments often unconvincing, particularly for well-known companies with existing balance sheets that typically do not face severe borrowing constraints.
• Technological barriers were cited by 61% of projects, including issues such as the need for skilled personnel, corrosion risks, and lack of stable transmission lines.
• Stakeholder consultation in India lacks a standard procedure, leading many project developers to present the process of obtaining governmental and local licenses, such as the Gram Panchayat 'no objection certificate', as evidence of stakeholder consultation.
• Stakeholder concerns primarily focus on local job creation, potential negative environmental and social impacts, and infrastructure contributions, while developers' expectations for sustainability benefits are generally broader and exceed those of the stakeholders.
• The Indian DNA's approval process and sustainability criteria are deemed insufficient to ensure the delivery of expected benefits, as few projects provide quantitative indicators of impact or contributions beyond normal project outcomes.

APA

Castro, P., & Benecke, G. (2008). Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study India. Climate Strategies. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-case-india-castro-benecke02-08.pdf

Chicago

Castro, Paula, and Gudrun Benecke. Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study India. Climate Strategies, 2008. https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-case-india-castro-benecke02-08.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Castro |first1=Paula |last2=Benecke |first2=Gudrun |title=Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study India |publisher=Climate Strategies |date=February 2008 |url=https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-case-india-castro-benecke02-08.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{castro2008empirical, author = {Castro, Paula and Benecke, Gudrun}, title = {{Empirical analysis of performance of CDM projects: case study India}}, institution = {Climate Strategies}, year = {2008}, month = feb, url = {https://climatestrategies.org/wp-content/uploads/2014/11/cdm-case-india-castro-benecke02-08.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }