Future Flood Risk: Historic Sites of St. Augustine

Climate Central's analysis indicates that five historic sites in St. Augustine, Florida—Castillo de San Marcos, Fort Matanzas, Fort Mose, the Lightner Museum, and the Lincolnville District—are all projected to face chronic flood risk by the end of the century. Using the RCP 8.5 emissions scenario, the report finds that several sites already face substantial threats, with some experiencing frequent or chronic risk currently.

• All five analyzed historic sites in St. Augustine are projected to experience chronic flood risk—defined as at least one expected flood risk event per year—by the end of the century, or potentially sooner.
• The Castillo de San Marcos currently experiences frequent risk for much of the building, with chronic flood risk affecting its parking lot and some pathways; parts of the fortification are expected to face chronic flooding within ten years.
• Fort Matanzas currently faces chronic coastal flood risk, which is expected to worsen until the base of the fort is below the high tide line in the second half of the century.
• At Fort Mose Historic State Park, the road entering the park already has occasional flood risk and may reach frequent flood risk by 2050, while the museum is projected to face occasional risk by 2070 and frequent risk by 2090.
• The Lightner Museum has approximately half its property already experiencing at least occasional flood risk; by 2030, a third of the area is estimated to face frequent or chronic risk, and by 2050, a quarter of sampled points are expected to have at least one flood risk event annually.
• In the Lincolnville Historic District, areas on the east side and south end currently face occasional or frequent flood risk. By 2030, more than a third of analyzed locations are projected to have at least frequent risk, and by 2050, over half will show exposure to occasional or more frequent risk, with 14 of 81 sites showing chronic risk.

APA

Climate Central (2021). Future Flood Risk: Historic Sites of St. Augustine. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3hTg6H3oqsBrMCsSQ5u1LF/fd9857f083d1a1bfe8c6f744b2360de5/Climate_Central_PAT_Coastal_Flood_Risk-StAugustine-FL.pdf

Chicago

Climate Central. Future Flood Risk: Historic Sites of St. Augustine. 2021. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3hTg6H3oqsBrMCsSQ5u1LF/fd9857f083d1a1bfe8c6f744b2360de5/Climate_Central_PAT_Coastal_Flood_Risk-StAugustine-FL.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Future Flood Risk: Historic Sites of St. Augustine |date=December 2021 |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3hTg6H3oqsBrMCsSQ5u1LF/fd9857f083d1a1bfe8c6f744b2360de5/Climate_Central_PAT_Coastal_Flood_Risk-StAugustine-FL.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2021future, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Future Flood Risk: Historic Sites of St. Augustine}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2021}, month = dec, url = {https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/3hTg6H3oqsBrMCsSQ5u1LF/fd9857f083d1a1bfe8c6f744b2360de5/Climate_Central_PAT_Coastal_Flood_Risk-StAugustine-FL.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }