Future Flood Risk: Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway

Climate Central's analysis indicates that a significant number of sites along the Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway are currently or will become exposed to coastal flood risk by 2100. Under a high-emissions scenario (RCP 8.5), 16 locations will face at least occasional flood risk by 2050, increasing to 25 by the end of the century. Specific historic sites, including the Tubman Visitor Center and Malone's Church, are projected to experience chronic flood risk—defined as at least one event per year—by 2050 or 2060. The report also highlights risks to infrastructure, such as Taylors Island Road, and ecological threats to the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, where sea level rise may outpace sediment accumulation and drown habitats.

• A screening of the Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway found that 16 locations are exposed to at least occasional flood risk by 2050, and 25 locations are exposed by the end of the century. Ten locations currently exhibit chronic flood risk, meaning they are expected to experience a flood risk event at least annually.
• The Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Visitor Center is projected to see its chronic flood risk area increase from 18% currently to 91% by 2050, with the entire property expected to experience chronic flood risk events by 2060.
• Malone Methodist Episcopal Church and its adjacent cemetery are facing severe risk; most of the area around the church is currently experiencing chronic flood risk, and the entire church footprint will be at chronic risk by 2050. The entire cemetery will experience chronic flood risk by 2060, and both sites could face almost monthly flood events in the latter half of the century.
• The Bucktown General Store already experiences chronic coastal flood risk at the back of the building. By 2050, three sides of the building will be at such risk, and by 2060, the store could experience monthly flood risk events.
• Long Wharf Park in Cambridge, Maryland, had 27% of its area at chronic flood risk in 2020. This is projected to increase to 80% by 2050, with the entire park experiencing annual flood risk events by 2070.
• The Moses Viney/Daniel Crouse Memorial Park is heavily impacted, with 65% of the park experiencing chronic flood risk in 2020. This is expected to rise to 91% by 2050, and the entire park will be at chronic risk by 2080.
• Infrastructure and ecological sites are also threatened: Taylors Island Road, the only access to Joseph Stewart’s Canal, is projected to face occasional flood risk by 2060, frequent risk by 2080, and chronic risk by 2100. In the Blackwater National Wildlife Refuge, sea level rise may outpace sediment accumulation, drowning habitats and degrading flood protection for inland communities.
• Scott’s Chapel is projected to experience occasional flood risk by 2060, frequent risk by 2090, and annual risk by 2100. Portions of the graveyard for Black people are already at frequent flood risk and could reach chronic risk by 2040.

APA

Climate Central (2021). Future Flood Risk: Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/2ivlC6tAu3GeqctYz9nNxX/d8fff8e7027fec61cc3d5a0a5e2dfd1c/Climate_Central_Future_Flood_Risk_Report_Harriet_Tubman_Byway.pdf

Chicago

Climate Central. Future Flood Risk: Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway. 2021. https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/2ivlC6tAu3GeqctYz9nNxX/d8fff8e7027fec61cc3d5a0a5e2dfd1c/Climate_Central_Future_Flood_Risk_Report_Harriet_Tubman_Byway.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Future Flood Risk: Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway |date=April 2021 |url=https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/2ivlC6tAu3GeqctYz9nNxX/d8fff8e7027fec61cc3d5a0a5e2dfd1c/Climate_Central_Future_Flood_Risk_Report_Harriet_Tubman_Byway.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2021future, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Future Flood Risk: Harriet Tubman Underground Railroad Byway}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2021}, month = apr, url = {https://assets.ctfassets.net/cxgxgstp8r5d/2ivlC6tAu3GeqctYz9nNxX/d8fff8e7027fec61cc3d5a0a5e2dfd1c/Climate_Central_Future_Flood_Risk_Report_Harriet_Tubman_Byway.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }