Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate

Analysis of 144 U.S. cities shows that 90% have experienced increased hourly rainfall intensity since 1970, with the highest average increases in the Upper Midwest. Projections indicate that at 2°C of global warming, 85% of U.S. counties will likely see a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days, with disproportionate risks for Black communities and rural areas.

• Between 1970 and 2025, 129 of the 144 analyzed U.S. cities (90%) saw an increase in hourly rainfall intensity, with an average increase of 15% across those locations. Specifically, 63% (91 cities) experienced an increase of 10% or more.
• The increase in hourly rainfall intensity is widespread across all U.S. regions, but the most significant average increases occurred in the Upper Midwest (+18%), the Northern Rockies and Plains (+16%), and the Ohio Valley (+15%). Individual cities with the highest increases include Wichita, KS (+38%), Reno, NV (+37%), Fairbanks, AK (+37%), and El Paso, TX (+37%).
• Under a 2°C (3.6°F) global warming scenario, 85% of the 3,111 U.S. counties are projected to experience a 10% or higher increase in precipitation on the heaviest 1% of days. Alaska and Hawaii are expected to see intensification levels of 43% and 30%, respectively. High-risk areas for at least a 30% increase are concentrated in Maine, Kentucky, North Carolina, Georgia, Alabama, Mississippi, and Tennessee.
• Heavier rainfall increases flash flooding and landslide risks, which disproportionately affect vulnerable populations. Due to systemic racism and discrimination, people of color and those in mobile homes are more exposed to flooding, with higher vulnerabilities in the southern U.S. and rural areas. A projected 26% increase in overall U.S. flood risk by 2050 may disproportionately impact Black communities along the Gulf and Atlantic coasts.

APA

Climate Central (2026). Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/heavier-rainfall-in-129-us-cities

Chicago

Climate Central. Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate. 2026. https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/heavier-rainfall-in-129-us-cities.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate Central |title=Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate |date=29 April 2026 |url=https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/heavier-rainfall-in-129-us-cities |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climatecentral2026extreme, author = {{Climate Central}}, title = {{Extreme Precipitation in a Warming Climate}}, institution = {Climate Central}, year = {2026}, month = apr, url = {https://www.climatecentral.org/climate-matters/heavier-rainfall-in-129-us-cities}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }