Energy Scenarios for Various CO2 Limits

The study evaluates three energy scenarios (A, B, and C) to determine the fuel mixes required to limit atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Scenario A assumes unlimited CO2 increase, while Scenario B limits the increase to 75% and Scenario C limits it to 440 ppm. The analysis highlights that achieving these limits would require a massive shift toward non-fossil fuels, such as nuclear, solar, and biomass, as coal and shale oil are identified as high-emission sources. The document warns that CO2 concentrations reaching 500 ppm would likely cause undesirable climatic changes, whereas 440 ppm is considered a relatively safe level.

• The study identifies that feedback mechanisms involving carbon exchange between the terrestrial biosphere and oceans are so significant that small changes could either drastically offset or increase the temperature impact of fossil fuel combustion.
• Coal and shale oil, as well as synthetic fuels derived from them, are characterized by high CO2-to-energy ratios. Shale oil is not predicted to be a major future energy source due to its high emissions and the environmental damage caused by its mining.
• Under Scenario B, which limits CO2 increase to 75%, atmospheric concentrations would reach 400 ppm around 2010, causing noticeable temperature changes, and near 500 ppm around 2080, which would likely result in undesirable climatic changes in many regions.
• Scenario C limits atmospheric CO2 to 440 ppm, which is viewed as a relatively safe level where global warming and precipitation changes would be noticeable but not extreme. To achieve this, non-fossil fuels must account for 50% of worldwide energy supply by 2010.
• The transition to non-fossil fuels required to meet CO2 limits is described as a 'gigantic undertaking.' For Scenario C, the required non-fossil fuel input by 2025 (110 billion B.O.E.) is more than double the input predicted in the unlimited emissions scenario (45 billion B.O.E.).
• To maintain the 440 ppm limit in Scenario C, yearly CO2 emissions would need to peak in 1995 at 2.0 ppm and decrease to 0.04 ppm by 2100. Without CO2 removal or disposal methods, this would limit coal combustion to only one billion B.O.E. in 2100, representing less than 1% of total world energy demand.

APA

Black, J. F., Herrmann, J., Hill, L. E., Hooper, E. D., Kaiser, F. J., Mastracchio, R. L., Mueller, H. H., Shaw, H., & shellfish, G. O. (n.d.). Energy Scenarios for Various CO2 Limits. Center for Climate Integrity. https://climateintegrity.org/uploads/deception/1979-Exxon-FerrallMemo.pdf

Chicago

Black, J. F., J. Herrmann, L. E. Hill, E. D. Hooper, F. J. Kaiser, R. L. Mastracchio, H. H. Mueller, H. Shaw, and G. O. shellfish. Energy Scenarios for Various CO2 Limits. Center for Climate Integrity, n.d. https://climateintegrity.org/uploads/deception/1979-Exxon-FerrallMemo.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{blackndenergy, author = {Black, J. F. and Herrmann, J. and Hill, L. E. and Hooper, E. D. and Kaiser, F. J. and Mastracchio, R. L. and Mueller, H. H. and Shaw, H. and shellfish, G. O.}, title = {{Energy Scenarios for Various CO2 Limits}}, institution = {Center for Climate Integrity}, url = {https://climateintegrity.org/uploads/deception/1979-Exxon-FerrallMemo.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }