OPINION ON INDUCED SEISMICITY RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE OIL AND GAS REQUIRING HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH AFRICA

The document argues that hydraulic fracturing in South Africa's Karoo Basin is likely to induce seismicity and that current proposed regulations are insufficient. It recommends the implementation of a risk-based Traffic Light Protocol (TLP) and a transparent, multi-tiered earthquake monitoring system to mitigate risks of building damage and public harm.

• Scientific evidence confirms that hydraulic fracturing for oil and gas causes induced seismicity globally, with reported events reaching magnitude ML 5.7 in China's Sichuan Basin.
• Induced seismicity can lead to significant consequences, including building damage, injuries, and fatalities; for example, a MW 5.5 event in Pohang, South Korea, caused approximately $75M USD in damages and 82 injuries.
• The author identifies the Karoo Basin as highly susceptible to induced seismicity due to the presence of pre-existing faults connected to development intervals and a history of earthquake swarms, such as the ML 4.8 events near Leeu Gamka (2007-2022).
• Effective risk management requires a Traffic Light Protocol (TLP) with pre-defined red- and yellow-light thresholds based on risk tolerances to trigger mitigation or cessation of operations.
• A robust monitoring framework should consist of a regulator-managed 'backbone' network for basin-scale compliance and operator-managed 'local' networks for real-time operational adjustments.
• The proposed South African regulations from the Department of Forestry, Fisheries, and Environment (DFFE) are critiqued for relying on outdated science and underestimating risks, specifically by incorrectly claiming that induced seismicity is primarily associated with wastewater injection.
• The author recommends that South Africa establish clear monitoring performance metrics, implement a risk-based TLP, and adopt FAIR principles for the open sharing of all raw waveform and operational data.

APA

Schultz, R. (n.d.). OPINION ON INDUCED SEISMICITY RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE OIL AND GAS REQUIRING HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH AFRICA. Centre for Environmental Rights. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Schultz_Induced-Seismicity_11-02-26_Final_w.-CV-1.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Schultz, Ryan. OPINION ON INDUCED SEISMICITY RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE OIL AND GAS REQUIRING HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH AFRICA. Centre for Environmental Rights, n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Schultz_Induced-Seismicity_11-02-26_Final_w.-CV-1.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite press release |last1=Schultz |first1=Ryan |title=OPINION ON INDUCED SEISMICITY RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE OIL AND GAS REQUIRING HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH AFRICA |publisher=Centre for Environmental Rights |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Schultz_Induced-Seismicity_11-02-26_Final_w.-CV-1.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@misc{schultzndopinion, author = {Schultz, Ryan}, title = {{OPINION ON INDUCED SEISMICITY RISK MANAGEMENT WITHIN THE PROPOSED REGULATIONS FOR EXPLORATION AND PRODUCTION OF ONSHORE OIL AND GAS REQUIRING HYDRAULIC FRACTURING TECHNOLOGY IN SOUTH AFRICA}}, publisher = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2026/04/Schultz_Induced-Seismicity_11-02-26_Final_w.-CV-1.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }