SECTORAL EMISSION TARGETS Technical Report

The report details a bottom-up integrated model developed in Analytica to project greenhouse gas emissions in South Africa to 2050. It incorporates a Mitigation Potential Analysis (MPA), GHG emission pathways, and a socio-economic model linked via a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM). The model assesses various sectors—including energy, industry, transport, waste, and AFOLU—applying specific mitigation measures and policies such as the Carbon Tax Act of 2019 and the IRP 2023. It provides a framework for evaluating the socio-economic impacts of decarbonisation pathways on employment, output, and household consumption across different income deciles.

• The energy sector is the largest source of emissions in South Africa, accounting for 86% of national emissions in 2022, with the electricity subsector contributing 87% of that total.
• The transport sector was the second largest emissions contributor in 2022, representing 12% of national emissions, with road transport accounting for 11.75% of the total.
• The industry sector accounted for 13% of national emissions in 2022, with more than half of these being process emissions and 47% resulting from energy emissions.
• The Integrated Model utilizes a carbon tax based on the Carbon Tax Act of 2019, with a 2023 rate of R 159 per tonne of CO2eq, aiming to reach at least $30 by 2030.
• For the electricity sector, the model uses the IRP 2023 build plan for Horizon 1 (up to 2030) and offers six potential scenarios for Horizon 2 (2031 to 2050), including 'Renewable energy' and 'Renewable energy and nuclear'.
• The socio-economic model is a demand-driven simulation based on a Social Accounting Matrix (SAM) that estimates impacts on employment, average wages, investment, and prices across household income deciles.
• In the AFOLU sector, the model identifies several restoration and conservation measures, such as restoring sub-tropical thickets (500,000 ha) and broadleaf woodland (300,000 ha).

APA

Centre for Environmental Rights (n.d.). SECTORAL EMISSION TARGETS Technical Report. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Annexure-D-SETs-Technical-Report1.pdf?x21779

Chicago

Centre for Environmental Rights. SECTORAL EMISSION TARGETS Technical Report. n.d. https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Annexure-D-SETs-Technical-Report1.pdf?x21779.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Centre for Environmental Rights |title=SECTORAL EMISSION TARGETS Technical Report |url=https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Annexure-D-SETs-Technical-Report1.pdf?x21779 |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centreforenvironmentalrightsndsectoral, author = {{Centre for Environmental Rights}}, title = {{SECTORAL EMISSION TARGETS Technical Report}}, institution = {Centre for Environmental Rights}, url = {https://cer.org.za/wp-content/uploads/2024/07/Annexure-D-SETs-Technical-Report1.pdf?x21779}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }