Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2

The document identifies significant gaps between the production of disaster risk assessments and their application in policy, particularly in Latin America and the Caribbean. It argues that risk assessments often fail because they are treated as one-off projects rather than continuous processes, lack alignment with political timescales, and are presented in overly technical language. To improve uptake, the guide recommends engaging end-users in design, targeting sectoral agendas, and building local technical capacity.

• Risk assessments are frequently hindered by technical obstacles, including a lack of conceptual clarity where disaster risk management and climate change adaptation use different definitions for terms like 'hazard' and 'risk'.
• A critical data gap exists at the local level across Latin America and the Caribbean, and in Pakistan, where the absence of national databases and high-quality spatial data on vulnerability and exposure limits the robustness of assessments.
• Operational barriers include a 'disconnect' between scientists and decision-makers, where technical results are presented in formats or languages that are difficult for officials to interpret or integrate into administrative processes.
• Institutional obstacles such as low political salience and short electoral cycles (typically four to six years) make it difficult for decision-makers to act on long-term climate change projections or 'invisible' hazards like extreme heat.
• The guide argues that risk assessments should be treated as ongoing processes rather than isolated projects to ensure long-term ownership and integration into everyday development practice.
• Successful risk assessment uptake is linked to engaging mid-level government officials in the design phase and targeting the specific agendas of sectoral ministries rather than imposing an 'integral' approach from the outside.
• Capacity building at the subnational level is essential, as local governments often lack the staff to interpret technical studies or align them with regulatory requirements.

APA

Wilkinson, E., & Brenes, A. (2014). Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Guide_RiskAssessment_FINAL_WEB.pdf

Chicago

Wilkinson, Emily, and Alonso Brenes. Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2014. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Guide_RiskAssessment_FINAL_WEB.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Wilkinson |first1=Emily |last2=Brenes |first2=Alonso |title=Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2 |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=April 2014 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Guide_RiskAssessment_FINAL_WEB.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{wilkinson2014riskinformed, author = {Wilkinson, Emily and Brenes, Alonso}, title = {{Risk-informed decision-making: An agenda for improving risk assessments under HFA2}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2014}, month = apr, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Guide_RiskAssessment_FINAL_WEB.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }