Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution

The report examines the utility of extreme event attribution (EEA) through interviews with government officials and NGO representatives in Ethiopia, Kenya, and India. While generally viewed positively, the practical application of EEA varies by country and sector. In Ethiopia and Kenya, EEA is seen as a critical tool for securing international climate finance and improving drought early warning systems. In India, stakeholders expressed more skepticism, emphasizing the need for a 'critical mass' of studies to identify trends before the science can effectively influence national mitigation or adaptation agendas. Across all regions, significant barriers persist, including the high technical complexity of EEA outputs, a lack of predictive capacity for future events, and the need for down-scaled, non-technical communication to reach local communities and farmers.

• In Ethiopia, EEA is highly valued by NGOs and government departments as a means to secure international funding, as it provides the necessary evidence to link community vulnerability to anthropogenic climate change for bodies like the Green Climate Fund.
• Stakeholders in Ethiopia and Kenya view EEA as a powerful tool for international climate negotiations, allowing them to argue that polluting developed nations have a responsibility to provide financial and technological assistance.
• In India, there is a perception that single-event attribution is insufficient for policy change; instead, a 'critical mass' of studies is required to identify statistically significant trends that can inform future predictions and adaptation investments.
• Across all three countries, a primary limitation of EEA is its lack of predictive capacity, with decision-makers expressing a stronger need for seasonal forecasts and information on the future frequency and intensity of events.
• There is a significant gap between the technical nature of EEA science and the needs of local communities, with a pressing requirement for information to be translated into simple, non-technical, and local languages.
• In Kenya, EEA is seen as a way to move away from 'siloed' and top-down disaster management toward a more integrated approach that coordinates responses across different ministries.
• Indian stakeholders highlighted that many disasters are driven more by poor management and development than by climate factors, and some suggested that framing climate risks in terms of economic gain or loss is more effective than using the term 'climate change'.
• The report identifies that the 'legitimacy' of EEA statements is currently the weakest of the three key criteria (salience, credibility, legitimacy) due to the complexity of graphical data and the use of overly technical language.

APA

Painter, J., & Walton, P. (2017). Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Stakeholder-responses-to-extreme-events-WEB-final.pdf

Chicago

Painter, James, and Peter Walton. Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, 2017. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Stakeholder-responses-to-extreme-events-WEB-final.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Painter |first1=James |last2=Walton |first2=Peter |title=Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |date=31 August 2017 |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Stakeholder-responses-to-extreme-events-WEB-final.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{painter2017raising, author = {Painter, James and Walton, Peter}, title = {{Raising risk awareness in East Africa and India: Stakeholder perspectives of extreme weather event attribution}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, year = {2017}, month = aug, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Stakeholder-responses-to-extreme-events-WEB-final.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }