Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

This briefing note provides an economic assessment of climate change impacts on the water sector in Uganda, projecting a significant increase in unmet water demand and associated monetary losses by 2050.

• Between 1981 and 2010, water availability in Uganda was generally sufficient, though some periods saw unmet demand reach up to 5% of total demand.
• Total water demand is projected to grow from 408 million cubic meters per year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. Assuming no new investments beyond current plans, total unmet demand under climate change is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y over the same period.
• The expected annual cost of unmet water demand in 2050 is estimated at a conservative US$5.5 billion, though this could be ten times higher if income effects on willingness to pay are considered. The highest economic losses are expected in the Lake Kyoga, Lake Victoria, and Albert Nile watersheds.
• Historical drought events have caused substantial losses: the 2005-6 drought resulted in US$250 million in losses, and the 2010-11 drought caused US$1,174 million in losses. The average annual damage per drought event in the last decade was US$237 million.
• Analysis of three priority programs from the Government of Uganda's national Climate Change Policy Costed Adaptation Strategy—focusing on water use efficiency (Programme A), water supply for agriculture and industry (Programme B), and Integrated Water Resources Management (Programme C)—indicates that all three would generate a 10% rate of return even with minimal impacts on unmet demand.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }