Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The document estimates that water demand in Uganda will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year in 2010 to 3,963 million cubic meters per year by 2050. Under climate change scenarios and assuming no new investments beyond current plans, unmet demand is projected to rise to 1,651 million cubic meters per year, with an expected annual cost of approximately US$5.5 billion by 2050. The analysis highlights that the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds will face the largest economic losses. Historical drought data shows significant impacts, with events in 2005-6 and 2010-11 causing losses of US$250 million and US$1,174 million respectively. The report concludes that priority adaptation programmes focusing on water use efficiency, supply for agriculture and industry, and Integrated Water Resources Management are likely to generate high returns on investment.

• Water demand in Uganda is projected to grow significantly, increasing from 408 million cubic meters a year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y by 2050. If no additional investments are made beyond current plans, total unmet demand under climate change will rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y over the same period.
• The annual economic cost of unmet water demand is anticipated to be around US$5.5 billion by 2050, though this is considered a conservative estimate that could be ten times higher if income effects on willingness to pay are included. The most severe economic losses are expected in the Albert Nile, Lake Kyoga, and Lake Victoria watersheds.
• Past drought events have caused substantial economic damage, specifically US$250 million during the 2005-6 drought and US$1,174 million during the 2010-11 drought, averaging US$237 million in annual damage per event.
• Analysis of three priority adaptation programmes—focusing on water use efficiency (Programme A), water supply for industry and agriculture (Programme B), and Integrated Water Resources Management (Programme C)—indicates that they would likely generate a 10% rate of return even with minimal impacts on unmet demand.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_Water-Sector_Briefing-Note.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }