Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda

The document estimates that water demand in Uganda will increase from 408 million cubic meters per year in 2010 to 3,963 million cubic meters per year by 2050, with unmet demand rising to 1,651 million cubic meters per year. The expected economic cost of this unmet demand in 2050 is estimated at 14,558 billion shillings (US$5.5 billion), with the highest losses anticipated in the Lake Victoria, Albert Nile, and Lake Kyoga watersheds. Historical drought data shows significant losses, specifically $250 million in 2005-6 and $1,174 million in 2010-11. Analysis of the Government of Uganda's Costed Adaptation Strategy suggests that investments in water use efficiency, supply for agriculture and industry, and Integrated Water Resources Management would likely generate a 10% rate of return.

• Water demand in Uganda is projected to grow significantly by 2050, with total demand increasing from 408 million cubic meters a year (MCM/y) in 2010 to 3,963 MCM/y. Under climate change, total unmet demand is expected to rise from 3.7 MCM/y to 1,651 MCM/y over the same period.
• The estimated economic cost of unmet water demand in 2050 is 14,558 billion shillings (approximately US$5.5 billion), though this is considered a conservative figure that could be ten times higher if income effects on willingness to pay are included. The most severe economic losses are expected in the Lake Kyoga, Albert Nile, and Lake Victoria watersheds.
• Past drought events have caused substantial economic damage, with the 2005-6 drought resulting in $250 million in losses and the 2010-11 drought resulting in $1,174 million in losses. These events typically last about 3 years, averaging $237 million in annual damage per event.
• An analysis of three programmes within the Government of Uganda's Costed Adaptation Strategy—focusing on water use efficiency, supply for agriculture and industry, and Integrated Water Resources Management—indicates that all three would likely generate a 10% rate of return even with minimal impacts on unmet demand.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Water.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Water.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Water.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndeconomic, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{Economic Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change in Uganda}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/Uganda_CC-Economics_FACT-SHEET_Water.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }