TAKING ACTION ON SUPPRESSED DEMAND

This technical paper examines the concept of 'suppressed demand' within the Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) of the Kyoto Protocol, arguing that failing to account for unmet needs in low-income countries leads to underestimated baselines and marginalizes Least Developed Countries (LDCs) and African nations in the carbon market.

• Suppressed demand is defined as a desire to consume a product or service that remains unmet due to specific barriers, including low income, poor infrastructure, and technology barriers.
• The distribution of registered Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) projects is skewed toward advanced developing countries, with LDCs and African countries having the fewest projects, partly because these regions are less attractive to investors due to constrained energy consumption levels.
• Excluding suppressed demand from CDM baselines results in an underestimation of the baseline emissions, which reduces the number of Certified Emission Reductions (CERs) a project can generate.
• The paper proposes establishing a 'minimum service level' as a credible way to construct a suppressed demand curve, such as setting a baseline of four incandescent bulbs for a rural household regardless of their current actual usage.
• While the CDM's modalities and procedures recognize scenarios where emissions may rise above current levels due to host Party circumstances, this has not been fully operationalized in baseline and monitoring methodologies.
• Recent policy actions, including decision 2/CMP.5 and subsequent guidelines adopted by the CDM Executive Board (EB), encourage the inclusion of suppressed demand in methodologies to make projects in poor countries more attractive.

APA

Climate and Development Knowledge Network (n.d.). TAKING ACTION ON SUPPRESSED DEMAND. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Technical-Paper_1906121.pdf

Chicago

Climate and Development Knowledge Network. TAKING ACTION ON SUPPRESSED DEMAND. n.d. https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Technical-Paper_1906121.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |title=TAKING ACTION ON SUPPRESSED DEMAND |url=https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Technical-Paper_1906121.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{climateanddevelopmentknowledgenetworkndtaking, author = {{Climate and Development Knowledge Network}}, title = {{TAKING ACTION ON SUPPRESSED DEMAND}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {https://cdkn.org/sites/default/files/files/CDKN-Technical-Paper_1906121.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }