Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool

The study uses the CARiDRO tool and the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) to analyze the 2009-2010 drought in the Eastern Caribbean and project future risks. It finds that the 2009-2010 event was a 1 in 40 years occurrence, but future droughts are projected to be more frequent, with an average recurrence of 1 in 5 years. The report suggests that the area affected by drought will increase after the middle of the 21st century, necessitating improved planning in water management and agriculture.

• The 2009-2010 drought event in the Eastern Caribbean was characterized as a 1 in 40 years event in terms of its intensity and spatial extension.
• Projections based on seven regional climate model outputs indicate that future drought events will be more frequent, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years, though individual models range from 1 in 3 to 1 in 12 years.
• Multi-model projections show an increase in the total area of the Caribbean affected by drought after the middle of the 21st century.

APA

Centella, A., Bezanilla, A., Vichot, A., & Joslyn, O. (n.d.). Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf

Chicago

Centella, Abel, Arnoldo Bezanilla, Alejandro Vichot, and Ottis Joslyn. Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Centella |first1=Abel |last2=Bezanilla |first2=Arnoldo |last3=Vichot |first3=Alejandro |last4=Joslyn |first4=Ottis |title=Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centellanddrought, author = {Centella, Abel and Bezanilla, Arnoldo and Vichot, Alejandro and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Drought Assessment \& Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }