Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool

This case study uses the Caribbean Assessment of Regional Drought (CARiDRO) tool to analyze the 2009-2010 drought in the Eastern Caribbean and project future drought risks between 2011 and 2070. The analysis indicates that droughts similar to the 2009-2010 event will become significantly more frequent and intense, with projections showing an increase in the affected area after the mid-21st century.

• The drought experienced between October 2009 and April 2010 in the Eastern Caribbean was a rare event, characterized as occurring once every 40 years. This event caused significant impacts across the water and agriculture sectors and influenced food prices in most Caribbean countries, revealing a lack of regional capacity to manage such droughts.
• Projections for the period 2011-2070 indicate that future drought events will be more frequent, with an average recurrence time of 1 in 5 years (ranging from 1 in 3 to 1 in 12 years across seven regional climate models). Additionally, the area affected by drought is projected to increase after the middle of the 21st century.
• The projected increase in drought frequency and intensity necessitates strategic planning in water management and agriculture. Recommended actions include investing in drought-resistant crop varieties, improving integrated watershed management, increasing domestic water storage, and enhancing early warning systems and monitoring.

APA

Centella, A., Bezanilla, A., Vichot, A., & Joslyn, O. (n.d.). Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool. Climate and Development Knowledge Network. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf

Chicago

Centella, Abel, Arnoldo Bezanilla, Alejandro Vichot, and Ottis Joslyn. Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool. Climate and Development Knowledge Network, n.d. http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Centella |first1=Abel |last2=Bezanilla |first2=Arnoldo |last3=Vichot |first3=Alejandro |last4=Joslyn |first4=Ottis |title=Drought Assessment & Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool |publisher=Climate and Development Knowledge Network |url=http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{centellanddrought, author = {Centella, Abel and Bezanilla, Arnoldo and Vichot, Alejandro and Joslyn, Ottis}, title = {{Drought Assessment \& Projection for the Eastern Caribbean Using the CARiDRO Tool}}, institution = {Climate and Development Knowledge Network}, url = {http://cdkn.org/wp-content/uploads/2013/01/cariwig-case-study-final-report-eastern-caribbean.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }