Systemic bankability is the key to unlocking energy transition speed and scale

The paper argues that emerging clean energy technologies face a 'missing middle'—a gap where projects are too large for venture capital but too risky for institutional project finance. To address this, the authors introduce a 'systemic bankability' framework consisting of nine risk factors: construction cost overruns, technology performance, revenue adequacy, regulatory uncertainty, enabling infrastructure limitations, social opposition, supply chain limitations, commercial insurance unavailability, and delivery system limitations. The authors note that while solar and onshore wind eventually achieved systemic bankability, the process was too slow for current climate goals, and even established technologies can see their bankability erode due to new bottlenecks like grid interconnection delays and social opposition.

• Emerging infrastructure-heavy technologies suffer from a 'missing middle' investment gap where project scales (typically $100 million to over $1 billion) exceed the capacity of government grants and venture capital but remain too risky for commercial banks and institutional investors.
• The International Energy Agency (IEA) indicates that 75% of cumulative emissions reductions required by 2050 must come from technologies currently in the prototype phase or not yet in mass market production.
• Systemic bankability is achieved only when nine specific risk factors are robustly addressed: construction cost overruns, technology performance, revenue adequacy, regulatory uncertainty, enabling infrastructure networks, social opposition, supply chain limitations, commercial insurance availability, and delivery system capacity.
• Existing policy tools like government grants and loan guarantees for first-of-a-kind (FOAK) projects are insufficient to bridge the missing middle because they do not address systemic issues such as permitting predictability or enabling infrastructure buildout.
• While solar PV and onshore wind eventually reached systemic bankability, the multi-decadal timeline was too slow for current net-zero targets, and these technologies now face eroding bankability due to new bottlenecks in transmission infrastructure, supply chains, and social acceptance.

APA

Spokas, K., Ulama, D., Greig, C., Waltzer, K., & Hobart, S. (2025). Systemic bankability is the key to unlocking energy transition speed and scale. Clean Air Task Force. https://www.catf.us/resource/systemic-bankability-is-the-key-to-unlocking-energy-transition-speed-and-scale/

Chicago

Spokas, Kasparas, Darryle Ulama, Chris Greig, Kurt Waltzer, and Scott Hobart. Systemic bankability is the key to unlocking energy transition speed and scale. Clean Air Task Force, 2025. https://www.catf.us/resource/systemic-bankability-is-the-key-to-unlocking-energy-transition-speed-and-scale/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Spokas |first1=Kasparas |last2=Ulama |first2=Darryle |last3=Greig |first3=Chris |last4=Waltzer |first4=Kurt |last5=Hobart |first5=Scott |title=Systemic bankability is the key to unlocking energy transition speed and scale |publisher=Clean Air Task Force |date=13 October 2025 |url=https://www.catf.us/resource/systemic-bankability-is-the-key-to-unlocking-energy-transition-speed-and-scale/ |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{spokas2025systemic, author = {Spokas, Kasparas and Ulama, Darryle and Greig, Chris and Waltzer, Kurt and Hobart, Scott}, title = {{Systemic bankability is the key to unlocking energy transition speed and scale}}, institution = {Clean Air Task Force}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://www.catf.us/resource/systemic-bankability-is-the-key-to-unlocking-energy-transition-speed-and-scale/}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }