ZAMBIA DEBT PROFILE

The 2024 Zambia Debt Profile by AFRODAD analyzes the drivers and consequences of Zambia's unsustainable national debt, which reached $25.5 billion by the end of 2023. The report details how excessive borrowing for unproductive infrastructure, combined with a high reliance on volatile copper exports and significant tax evasion, led to a sovereign default in November 2020. It highlights the severe impact of debt servicing on social sectors, specifically the crowding out of health and education budgets, and evaluates the challenges of restructuring under the G20 Common Framework.

• Zambia's national debt reached $25.5 billion by the end of 2023, representing a 33.42% increase from the previous year. The debt-to-GDP ratio was approximated at 75 percent, though it had approached 120% by 2020.
• The country's debt profile has shifted from concessional borrowing to non-concessional sources. Commercial loans rose from 0% in 2010 to over 50% in 2023, with China becoming the largest single creditor due to the Road and Built initiative.
• Debt servicing has severely constrained spending on social services. In 2023, debt servicing accounted for 32% of the budget, while health and education received only 9% and 12% respectively. Education funding as a share of the total budget declined from 11.5% in 2021 to 8.4% in 2023.
• Zambia's economy is highly vulnerable to copper price fluctuations, as copper and copper-related products account for up to 77% of exports. Resource taxes in Zambia are only 35 % of exports, significantly lower than the 25-40 % global average for resource-rich developing countries.
• Significant revenue is lost to tax evasion and illicit financial flows (IFFs). Multinationals are estimated to cost Zambia up to $3 billion annually through tax avoidance and evasion, while IFFs are estimated to cost the country around 5% of its GDP annually.
• Zambia defaulted on its Eurobond debt in November 2020, becoming the first African nation to do so during the COVID-19 pandemic. While it agreed to restructure $3 billion in Eurobonds in March 2024, other private creditor agreements amounting to at least $3.2 billion remain unresolved.
• The G20 Common Framework for debt restructuring is described as problematic due to its narrow scope, which excludes some private and commercial lenders, and an uncoordinated approach to negotiations.
• Zambia's legal framework for debt management is fragmented. The Public Debt Management Act of 2022 sets a public debt limit of 65% of GDP and a 10% GDP limit on contingent liabilities, but these ceilings only take effect in 2027.
• Climate change financing is critical as 60% of the population relies on agriculture. Zambia requires an estimated $50 billion annually through 2030 for mitigation and adaptation, though it currently receives $138.7 million from the Green Climate Fund across 9 projects.

APA

African Forum and Network on Debt and Development (n.d.). ZAMBIA DEBT PROFILE. https://www.afrodad.org/sites/default/files/publications/Zambia%20debt%20profile.pdf

Chicago

African Forum and Network on Debt and Development. ZAMBIA DEBT PROFILE. n.d. https://www.afrodad.org/sites/default/files/publications/Zambia%20debt%20profile.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |author=African Forum and Network on Debt and Development |title=ZAMBIA DEBT PROFILE |url=https://www.afrodad.org/sites/default/files/publications/Zambia%20debt%20profile.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{africanforumandnetworkondebtanddevelopmentndzambia, author = {{African Forum and Network on Debt and Development}}, title = {{ZAMBIA DEBT PROFILE}}, institution = {African Forum and Network on Debt and Development}, url = {https://www.afrodad.org/sites/default/files/publications/Zambia%20debt%20profile.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }