The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries

The report examines four EU climate regulations—the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), the EU ETS for Shipping, and Methane Regulations—and their disproportionate effects on African economies. It highlights risks such as GDP reduction, loss of export revenue, and increased maritime costs, while calling for financial support, technical capacity building, and a shift toward global rather than unilateral regulatory frameworks.

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) may significantly reduce Africa's continental GDP, with one model projecting a decrease of 0.91%, which equals a $25-billion reduction based on 2021 levels.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) threatens Africa with annual export revenue losses of USD 11 billion if the region cannot meet compliance requirements, particularly affecting cocoa and coffee exports which are highly reliant on the EU market.
• The extension of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) to shipping has led to an estimated 10% increase in maritime transport costs for African importers, with some shipping lines imposing surcharges up to three times the actual cost recovery levels.
• EU Methane Regulations impose stringent monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements on oil, gas, and coal imports, creating a financing gap for fossil fuel methane abatement in low- and middle-income countries estimated at USD 60 billion.
• African countries face significant barriers to complying with EU climate rules due to immature emissions reporting regimes, limited financial resources for smallholder farmers, and a lack of administrative infrastructure for carbon pricing.
• The report argues that EU regulations often fail to recycle generated revenues back to impacted African nations, instead directing funds to the EU budget or the EU Innovation Fund for projects within the EU.

APA

Manchishi, S., Ogbugo, M., & Rumble, O. (2025). The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries. African Future Policies Hub. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404

Chicago

Manchishi, Shimukunku, Maria Ogbugo, and Olivia Rumble. The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries. African Future Policies Hub, 2025. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Manchishi |first1=Shimukunku |last2=Ogbugo |first2=Maria |last3=Rumble |first3=Olivia |title=The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries |publisher=African Future Policies Hub |date=October 2025 |url=https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{manchishi2025inequity, author = {Manchishi, Shimukunku and Ogbugo, Maria and Rumble, Olivia}, title = {{The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries}}, institution = {African Future Policies Hub}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }