The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries

This report by the African Future Policies Hub analyzes the economic and administrative burdens placed on African nations by evolving European Union (EU) climate regulations, specifically the Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), the EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR), the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) for shipping, and Methane Regulations. The authors argue that these measures often lack adequate mitigation for developing countries, risking significant GDP losses, increased trade costs, and the exclusion of smallholder farmers from EU markets.

• The Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM), which imposes border tariffs on carbon-intensive imports like cement, iron, steel, aluminum, fertilizers, electricity, and hydrogen, could significantly impact African economies. One model suggests it may reduce continental GDP by 0.91%, which equates to a $25-billion reduction based on 2021 levels.
• The EU Deforestation Regulation (EUDR) requires imports of cattle, cocoa, coffee, oil palm, rubber, soy, and wood to be deforestation-free. Africa risks losing USD 11 billion in annual export revenue if it cannot meet these requirements, with cocoa (59%) and coffee (43%) exports being particularly reliant on the EU market.
• The extension of the EU ETS to the shipping industry has led to increased maritime transport costs for African importers. In Ghana, emissions surcharges of approximately USD 157 per 20ft container from Europe have contributed to an estimated 10% rise in maritime transport costs.
• EU Methane Regulations impose strict monitoring, reporting, and verification (MRV) requirements on imports of oil, gas, and coal. African nations face a significant financing gap for methane abatement, with the IEA estimating the gap for low- and middle-income countries at USD 60 billion, while external financing to date is less than USD 1 billion.
• The report highlights a systemic inequity where revenues generated from EU climate regulations are not recycled back to the impacted African countries. For example, shipping surcharges paid into the EU Innovation Fund can only be used for green projects within the European Union.
• Smallholder farmers in Africa are particularly vulnerable to the EUDR due to a lack of financial resources and technical capacity to implement required traceability systems. While the EU proposed simplifications for small and micro operators, these may not apply to many African countries if they are classified as 'standard risk' or 'high risk'.

APA

Manchishi, S., Ogbugo, M., & Rumble, O. (2025). The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries. African Future Policies Hub. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404

Chicago

Manchishi, Shimukunku, Maria Ogbugo, and Olivia Rumble. The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries. African Future Policies Hub, 2025. https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Manchishi |first1=Shimukunku |last2=Ogbugo |first2=Maria |last3=Rumble |first3=Olivia |title=The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries |publisher=African Future Policies Hub |date=October 2025 |url=https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404 |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{manchishi2025inequity, author = {Manchishi, Shimukunku and Ogbugo, Maria and Rumble, Olivia}, title = {{The Inequity of Evolving EU Climate Regulations for African Countries}}, institution = {African Future Policies Hub}, year = {2025}, month = oct, url = {https://img1.wsimg.com/blobby/go/b2d05cc3-7b8c-4f0d-a62a-66af7434f28f/downloads/02b15946-c9ee-4a6a-9e30-e537d6f2b7c0/AFPH_Equity%20of%20the%20Transition%20Report.pdf?ver=1780902965404}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }