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U.S. tariffs have created a mixed impact across Latin America, with Mexico and Central American countries facing the highest effective tariff rates due to their export profiles and reliance on the U.S. market. However, the authors argue that South American nations are more vulnerable to indirect spillovers from China, which is now the primary trading partner for most of the subregion. A slowdown in Chinese demand for minerals, metals, and energy products, driven by high U.S. tariffs on China, could depress regional growth and commodity prices if China fails to implement effective countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies.

The report identifies administrative and trade policy non-tariff barriers (NTBs) that increase the cost of business along the South Africa-Zimbabwe trade route. Key findings highlight severe delays at the Beit Bridge border crossing, where some trucks take an average of 2.5 days to clear. Zimbabwean foreign exchange controls are identified as the most costly trade policy NTB across multiple sectors, effectively acting as an export tax. Additionally, the report notes significant infrastructure failures in the regional rail network, forcing a reliance on more expensive road transport, and capacity constraints at Durban port that lead to costly truck congestion.

The report examines the trade and investment dynamics between SACU (primarily South Africa) and China, arguing that while Chinese imports threaten SACU's light manufacturing, the complementarity of their economies—specifically China's demand for natural resources—makes a phased free trade agreement (FTA) a strategic necessity for restructuring SACU's economy.

The report argues that a free trade agreement (FTA) between the Southern African Customs Union (SACU) and Mercosur would offer limited static economic gains, as current trade flows would likely reinforce South Africa's existing comparative advantage in capital-intensive primary products. However, it highlights significant dynamic opportunities for industrial development through intra-industry specialisation, institutional collaboration on technology and small business policy, and the potential to discipline dominant upstream firms through increased competition. The author warns of risks in sensitive sectors, particularly motor vehicles and agriculture, where South Africa could become a 'periphery location' to Brazil's larger economy.

The report argues that AGOA has provided limited new opportunities for South African exports because US tariffs were already low, though some agricultural products like fruit juices and pears have seen significant growth. It identifies non-tariff barriers, such as US agricultural subsidies and strict standards, as the primary remaining obstacles to trade. The authors suggest that a reciprocal SACU-US agreement could lock in these preferences and protect South African interests against the unilateral nature of AGOA.