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Farming or Fighting? Agricultural Price Shocks and Civil War in Africa
The study finds a significant negative relationship between local agricultural price indices and the risk of violent conflict in Africa. Using a meso-level approach with a spatial-temporal grid, the author argues that falling agricultural prices lower the opportunity costs for rural populations, thereby facilitating rebel recruitment and civilian support. The results suggest that negative price shocks have a more detrimental effect on conflict risk than positive shocks have a mitigating effect, supporting the 'opportunity cost' mechanism over the 'state capacity' explanation.
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Document type: Research paper