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Economic Development, Rebel Mobilization, and Civil War Onset
The research argues that the association between poverty and civil war is primarily driven by low state reach and geographic accessibility rather than the depth of poverty itself. Through cross-national quantitative analysis and a detailed case study of the Maoist insurgency in Nepal, the author finds that while inaccessibility and pre-existing social networks are critical for the survival and growth of initially weak rebel groups, their importance declines as rebels gain relative military capacity. The study concludes that the 'economic opportunity cost' account—which posits that poverty makes rebellion financially feasible—is less supported by the evidence than the 'politico-military opportunity' account.
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Document type: Research paper