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POPULATION FUTURES: REVISITING SOUTH AFRICA’S NATIONAL DEVELOPMENT PLAN 2030
This policy brief by the Institute for Security Studies evaluates population projections for South Africa up to 2050, comparing the National Development Plan (NDP) 2030 with simulations from the International Futures (IFs) model. The analysis highlights significant discrepancies in population forecasts, primarily driven by differing assumptions regarding international migration, and explores the impact of fertility and mortality trends, including the role of antiretroviral therapies (ARTs) in increasing life expectancy.
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Document type: Policy brief
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