Search Climate Insights Directory

The policy brief defines carbon lock-in as the process where investments in carbon-intensive technologies and institutions make shifting to low-carbon pathways more difficult and expensive. It introduces a four-step methodology for policy-makers to assess lock-in risk: defining the context, identifying investments inconsistent with climate goals (using 'over-committed emissions' and 'over-production' metrics), assessing the strength of the lock-in (via equipment lifetime and capital intensity), and considering techno-institutional effects. Applying this globally for the period 2015–2030, the brief identifies coal-fired power plants as the highest risk on the demand side, committing 180 Gt CO2 beyond a 2°C pathway. On the supply side, capital-intensive offshore oil and gas platforms are highlighted as significant risks due to high capital and rent intensities. The author recommends that policy-makers move beyond merely promoting low-carbon technologies to actively restricting high-carbon investments through stringent codes, moratoria, and the use of shadow carbon prices.