Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in

This policy brief from the Stockholm Environment Institute describes a four-step process for identifying and minimizing 'carbon lock-in'—the process where investments in carbon-intensive infrastructure make shifting to low-carbon pathways more difficult and expensive. The document demonstrates this approach on a global scale, highlighting the high risks associated with coal and gas power plants, private vehicle travel, and capital-intensive fossil fuel supply infrastructure, and provides guidance for applying the framework at national and regional levels.

• The document proposes a four-step methodology for policy-makers to identify investments with high carbon lock-in risk: defining the context (objectives and time-frames), identifying investments inconsistent with climate goals using 'over-committed emissions' and 'over-production' metrics, assessing the strength of lock-in (equipment lifetime and financial barriers), and considering techno-institutional effects (such as market share).
• On a global scale, coal-fired power plants represent the most significant lock-in risk for the period 2015–2030, with over-committed emissions estimated at 180 Gt CO2. This amount is substantial relative to the remaining 2°C carbon budget of approximately 1,000 Gt CO2.
• Beyond coal power, other high-risk demand-side technologies include natural gas power plants and internal combustion engine passenger vehicles, the latter of which risk entrenching fueling networks and hindering the development of low-carbon transport.
• Regarding fossil fuel supply, capital-intensive oil and gas extraction—specifically offshore platforms—poses a greater lock-in challenge than coal mining. While coal supply has higher over-production (5 of 7 Gt CO2), offshore oil and gas are more capital-intensive (>50 USD/tCO2) and generate higher economic rents (up to USD 100/tCO2), making them more likely to continue operating once established.
• The document notes that a significant portion of projected over-committed emissions is likely to occur in the developing world, specifically identifying coal-fired power in Asia as the largest source.
• To minimize carbon lock-in, the authors recommend policies beyond promoting low-carbon technology, including more stringent codes and standards, moratoria on high-risk investments (like new coal plants), and the use of high proxy or shadow carbon prices for large-scale investment decisions.

APA

Erickson, P., Kartha, S., Lazarus, M., & Tempest, K. (2015). Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, Sivan Kartha, Michael Lazarus, and Kevin Tempest. Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Kartha |first2=Sivan |last3=Lazarus |first3=Michael |last4=Tempest |first4=Kevin |title=Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2015leaving, author = {Erickson, Peter and Kartha, Sivan and Lazarus, Michael and Tempest, Kevin}, title = {{Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }