Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in

The policy brief defines carbon lock-in as the process where investments in carbon-intensive technologies and institutions make shifting to low-carbon pathways more difficult and expensive. It introduces a four-step methodology for policy-makers to assess lock-in risk: defining the context, identifying investments inconsistent with climate goals (using 'over-committed emissions' and 'over-production' metrics), assessing the strength of the lock-in (via equipment lifetime and capital intensity), and considering techno-institutional effects. Applying this globally for the period 2015–2030, the brief identifies coal-fired power plants as the highest risk on the demand side, committing 180 Gt CO2 beyond a 2°C pathway. On the supply side, capital-intensive offshore oil and gas platforms are highlighted as significant risks due to high capital and rent intensities. The author recommends that policy-makers move beyond merely promoting low-carbon technologies to actively restricting high-carbon investments through stringent codes, moratoria, and the use of shadow carbon prices.

• Coal-fired power plants represent the most significant global carbon lock-in risk for the period 2015–2030, as they are long-lived and would over-commit 180 Gt CO2, a substantial amount relative to the remaining 2°C carbon budget of approximately 1,000 Gt CO2.
• Beyond coal power, significant lock-in risks are identified in the expansion of natural gas power plants and private vehicle travel, the latter of which risks further entrenching fueling networks and hindering low-carbon transport development.
• In fossil fuel supply, capital-intensive offshore oil and gas investments pose a high lock-in risk because their high capital intensity (>50 USD/tCO2) and economic rents (up to USD 100/tCO2) make them likely to continue production once established, despite being inconsistent with a 2°C scenario.
• While coal supply leads to the highest volume of over-production (5 of 7 Gt CO2), it is generally less 'locked-in' than coal power plants because coal mining is not particularly capital-intensive and yields low economic rents (typically less than 3 USD/tCO2).
• The proposed four-step assessment process involves: 1) defining the decision context and climate objectives; 2) identifying investments that lead to 'over-committed emissions' or 'over-production' of fuels; 3) measuring lock-in strength via equipment lifetime or capital intensity; and 4) analyzing techno-institutional effects using market share as a proxy.
• To minimize lock-in, the document suggests policy-makers should prioritize stringent codes and standards, consider moratoria on high-risk investments like new coal plants, and use high shadow carbon prices for government and private sector decision-making.

APA

Erickson, P., Kartha, S., Lazarus, M., & Tempest, K. (2015). Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in. Stockholm Environment Institute. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf

Chicago

Erickson, Peter, Sivan Kartha, Michael Lazarus, and Kevin Tempest. Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in. Stockholm Environment Institute, 2015. https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Erickson |first1=Peter |last2=Kartha |first2=Sivan |last3=Lazarus |first3=Michael |last4=Tempest |first4=Kevin |title=Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in |publisher=Stockholm Environment Institute |date=2015 |url=https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{erickson2015leaving, author = {Erickson, Peter and Kartha, Sivan and Lazarus, Michael and Tempest, Kevin}, title = {{Leaving room for ‘green growth’: identifying near-term actions to avoid long-term carbon lock-in}}, institution = {Stockholm Environment Institute}, year = {2015}, url = {https://www.sei.org/mediamanager/documents/Publications/Climate/SEI-PB-2015-Avoiding-carbon-lock-in.pdf}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }