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Trade, Industrial Policy and Exchange Rates in South Africa
The document summarizes a 'Critical Thinking Forum' that examined whether South Africa should intervene in its exchange rate to boost export competitiveness. A consensus emerged that manipulating the nominal exchange rate is not a 'silver bullet' and could be unsustainable due to limited foreign exchange reserves and the risk of increasing inflation. Instead, participants emphasized the need for microeconomic reforms to address structural bottlenecks in network services and lower domestic costs. The paper also explores the tension between trade liberalisation and protectionist industrial policies, such as those advocated by COSATU and the SACP, noting that previous liberalisation in the 1990s helped export diversification.
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Document type: Research paper