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U.S. Heat February 2017
The analysis finds that February 2017 was the second warmest February on record for the contiguous United States, with temperatures 3.1°C above the 1981–2010 normal. By combining historical observations with CMIP5, HadGEM3-A, and Weather@Home model ensembles, the study concludes that the probability of such a warm event has increased more than threefold due to human-induced greenhouse gas emissions. While the 2017 event had a return period of approximately 12 years in the current climate, it would have been a 1-in-160-year event around 1900. Projections suggest that by 2050, temperatures like those seen in February 2017 will be 'completely normal', occurring roughly every three years.
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Document type: Research paper