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Who Revolts? Empirically Revisiting the Social Origins of Democracy
The research argues that democratization is more likely when opposition movements are led by urban groups—industrial workers and the middle class—who possess both the motivation to seek democratic policies and the organizational capacity to challenge regimes. Using a dataset of 193 campaigns across 147 countries, the authors find that movements dominated by industrial workers have a robust and significant positive effect on democratization. In contrast, movements dominated by peasants or military personnel are not conducive to democratization, and the evidence for middle-class-led campaigns is mixed, appearing more effective when limited to students and educated professionals or non-violent tactics.
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Document type: Research paper