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Rapid attribution of heavy rainfall events leading to the severe flooding in Western Europe during July 2021
The July 2021 floods in Western Europe were driven by extreme rainfall from the low-pressure system 'Bernd', compounded by pre-existing wet soil conditions. While attribution for small catchments like the Ahr and Erft is challenging due to high natural variability, a broader 'Pooling Region' analysis indicates that climate change increased the intensity of maximum 1-day rainfall by 3-19% and its likelihood by a factor of 1.2 to 9 compared to a climate 1.2 °C cooler. Future projections suggest further increases in intensity and frequency in a 2 °C warmer climate.
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Document type: Research paper
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