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intitle:
The document title intitle:"climate education"
ispublisher:
The publishing organization ispublisher:CAPE
insummary:
Summary and key findings insummary:"conflict of interest"
hasconcept:
Climate tags, frame/perspective and analysis type hasconcept:"Climate Justice"
geography:
Regions the document covers or discusses geography:Canada
doctype:
Document type doctype:report
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Document language, as an ISO code lang:fr
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Analysis TypeOut-of-sample forecasting
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  • The study examines how public opinion influences conflict dynamics between democratic and non-democratic actors. Using data from the Israeli-Palestinian conflict (1996–2005), the authors compare four models: bystander, follower, accountability, and credibility. They find that the credibility model, which allows for simultaneous interactions between public opinion and government behavior, fits the data best. The results suggest asymmetric reciprocity, where the democratic actor (Israel) reciprocates cooperation and conflict, while the non-democratic actor (Palestinians) often reacts with hostility to cooperative gestures. Including public opinion data significantly improved the accuracy of conflict forecasts for 2005.

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    Peace Research Institute Oslo

    Document type: Research paper

    Regions: IsraelPalestine
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