For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster

The briefing argues that for a transition away from fossil fuels to be equitable, advanced economies must lead with more aggressive emission reductions. Using the IEA's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, it highlights that advanced economies need to reduce oil emissions by 40% and gas emissions by 33% by 2030, compared to significantly lower targets for emerging and developing economies. The document warns that recent failures to reduce emissions have led to a decline in the ambition of these targets in updated IEA models.

• To achieve an equitable transition in line with the 1.5C temperature goal, advanced economies must reduce emissions from oil by 40% and from gas by 33% by 2030. In contrast, emerging and developing economies are modeled to require reductions of 20% for oil and 4% for gas by the same date.
• The principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities' establishes that developed countries should lead climate action due to their greater economic capabilities and historical contributions to climate change. This duty was reaffirmed by the 2015 Paris Agreement and a 2025 International Court of Justice ruling.
• The ambition for emissions reductions by 2030 has decreased in successive revisions of the IEA's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario because global CO2 emissions rose by 11% between 2020 and 2023. For advanced economies, the required natural gas emission cut dropped from 45% in the 2022 NZE to 33% in the 2024 NZE, while oil cuts dropped from 48% to 40%.

APA

Green, K. (2025). For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/

Chicago

Green, Kate. For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Green |first1=Kate |title=For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=12 November 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{green2025equitable, author = {Green, Kate}, title = {{For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }