For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the concept of international equity in the context of the COP30 'Action Agenda', arguing that advanced economies must phase out oil and gas emissions at a significantly faster rate than emerging and developing economies to align with the 1.5C temperature goal of the Paris Agreement.

• To achieve an equitable transition, advanced economies must implement more aggressive emission reductions by 2030 than emerging and developing economies. According to the IEA's Net Zero Emissions (NZE) scenario, advanced economies need to reduce oil emissions by 40% and gas emissions by 33% by 2030, whereas emerging and developing economies are modeled to reduce oil emissions by 20% and gas emissions by 4% over the same period.
• The principle of 'common but differentiated responsibilities' establishes that developed countries should lead in combating climate change due to their greater economic capabilities and historical contributions to emissions. This principle is rooted in the 1992 UN Framework Convention on Climate Change and was reaffirmed in the 2015 Paris Agreement, with the International Court of Justice finding in 2025 that this constitutes a clear legal duty for states.
• The ambition for emissions reductions by 2030 has decreased in successive updates of the IEA's NZE scenario because global CO2 emissions rose by 11% between 2020 and 2023. For advanced economies, the required natural gas emission reduction fell from 45% (in the 2022 NZE) to 33% (in the 2024 NZE), and oil emission reductions fell from 48% to 40% over the same period.

APA

Green, K. (2025). For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/

Chicago

Green, Kate. For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2025. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Green |first1=Kate |title=For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=12 November 2025 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{green2025equitable, author = {Green, Kate}, title = {{For an equitable transition away from fossil fuels, advanced economies must phase out faster}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2025}, month = nov, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/energy/for-an-equitable-transition-away-from-fossil-fuels-advanced-economies-must-phase-out-faster/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }