Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential

This briefing by Zero Carbon Analytics examines the technical potential and economic viability of offshore wind in Japan. It highlights that Japan's technical potential exceeds its projected 2050 electricity demand by nine times, though current deployment remains low. The document discusses the transition from fixed-bottom to floating offshore wind, the potential for reducing fossil fuel import dependency, and the regulatory and infrastructural barriers—specifically permitting and grid fragmentation—that must be addressed to meet government targets.

• Japan possesses vast offshore wind resources, with a total technical potential for generation exceeding 9,000 TWh/year, which is more than nine times the country's projected electricity demand for 2050 (922 TWh/yr).
• The Japanese government has set targets to award offshore wind contracts for 10 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040, aiming for 1 GW of construction annually until 2030. However, the IEA suggests reaching the 2030 goal will be difficult, as only 0.5 GW of new capacity is likely to be commissioned between 2022 and 2027.
• Expanding offshore wind can significantly lower Japan's reliance on imported fossil fuels. A single 1 GW offshore wind farm could replace 0.8 billion cubic meters of gas; based on 2022 prices, the 30 GW target for 2030 would have avoided USD 27.8 billion in imported gas costs.
• Floating offshore wind is critical for Japan due to its deep coastal waters. While fixed-bottom projects have a potential capacity of 128 GW in shallow waters, floating offshore wind in deeper waters has a much higher potential of 424 GW.
• The cost of offshore wind is declining rapidly. By 2030, building offshore wind in Japan is expected to be cheaper than new nuclear power or coal plants equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Several systemic barriers hinder the rapid deployment of offshore wind in Japan, including a costly and lengthy Environmental Impact Assessment process and a fragmented electricity network divided by different technical standards (50 Hertz in the East and 60 Hertz in the West).

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=1 June 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023offshore, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }