Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential

Japan possesses vast offshore wind resources, with a technical potential exceeding 9,000 TWh/year, far surpassing its projected 2050 electricity demand. While current deployment is low, the government has set targets of 10 GW by 2030 and 45 GW by 2040. The document highlights that floating offshore wind is critical for Japan due to its deep coastal waters and could position the country as a global industry leader. Economic benefits include reduced dependency on imported fossil fuels, with a 30 GW target by 2030 potentially avoiding USD 27.8 billion in gas costs at 2022 prices. However, achieving these targets is hindered by lengthy environmental permitting processes and a fragmented electricity grid divided by different technical standards (50 Hz and 60 Hz).

• Japan's technical potential for offshore wind is immense, estimated at over 9,000 TWh/year, which is more than nine times the country's projected electricity demand for 2050 (922 TWh/yr).
• The Global Wind Energy Council (GWEC) identifies a capacity potential of 128 GW for fixed-bottom projects in shallow waters and a significantly higher 424 GW for floating offshore wind in deeper waters.
• Expanding offshore wind would significantly lower Japan's reliance on imported fossil fuels. Based on 2022 prices, achieving the 30 GW target by 2030 could have avoided USD 27.8 billion in imported gas costs.
• Offshore wind costs are declining rapidly; by 2030, construction is expected to be cheaper than new nuclear power or coal plants equipped with carbon capture and storage (CCS).
• Japan's current deployment is low, with only 91 MW of offshore wind in 2022 (including 5 MW floating), though the first large-scale 140 MW project began commercial operation at Noshiro Port in Akita Prefecture in February 2023.
• The government's target of 10 GW by 2030 is considered challenging because the IEA predicts only 0.5 GW of new capacity will be commissioned between 2022 and 2027, leaving 9.5 GW to be delivered in the final three years.
• Significant barriers to deployment include a costly and lengthy Environmental Impact Assessment process and a fragmented grid system split between 50 Hertz in the East and 60 Hertz in the West.

APA

Team, Z. (2023). Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential. Zero Carbon Analytics. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/

Chicago

Team, ZCA. Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential. Zero Carbon Analytics, 2023. https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Team |first1=ZCA |title=Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential |publisher=Zero Carbon Analytics |date=1 June 2023 |url=https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/ |access-date=17 August 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{team2023offshore, author = {Team, ZCA}, title = {{Offshore wind in Japan: the untapped potential}}, institution = {Zero Carbon Analytics}, year = {2023}, month = jun, url = {https://zerocarbon-analytics.org/insights/briefings/offshore-wind-in-japan-the-untapped-potential/}, urldate = {2026-08-17}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }