FUEL FOR THE FUTURE

South Africa has the technical potential to produce between 3.2 and 4.5 billion litres of sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) annually, depending on the use of green hydrogen. The most cost-efficient route is the first-generation alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) pathway using sugarcane A-molasses, while the largest volume potential comes from processing invasive alien plants (IAPs) and garden waste via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis. A domestic SAF industry could create over 100,000 direct green jobs, including significant opportunities for coal-truck drivers in transition, and improve the national balance of trade by up to R170 billion per annum.

• South Africa's annual SAF production potential is 3.2 billion litres under a self-sufficiency scenario, increasing to 4.5 billion litres if green hydrogen is integrated into the manufacturing process.
• The first-generation (1G) alcohol-to-jet (AtJ) pathway using sugarcane A-molasses is identified as the fastest and most economical initial route, capable of producing over 300 million litres annually at internationally competitive prices.
• Invasive alien plants (IAPs) and garden waste represent the largest lignocellulosic feedstock source, with the potential to produce 1.8 to 3 billion litres of SAF annually via Fischer-Tropsch synthesis.
• The Hydroprocessed Esters and Fatty Acids (HEFA) pathway using Solaris seed oil could produce 1.1 billion litres of SAF per year and generate nearly 20,000 agricultural jobs.
• A domestic SAF industry could create over 100,000 direct green jobs. Specifically, maximum localisation of construction could provide 40,000 direct and 48,000 indirect jobs, while operations could support 46,500 direct and 3,600 indirect jobs over 20 years.
• The SAF supply chain offers a critical transition for coal-sector workers, with the potential to create nearly 7,500 truck-driver jobs, approximately 3,800 of which are in coal-mining regions.
• Developing a domestic SAF industry could improve South Africa's balance of trade by R118 billion (US$7.9 billion) per annum through import substitution, or up to R159.5 billion (US$10.6 billion) per annum if all SAF is exported.
• Most SAF pathways achieve at least 70% emissions reduction compared to fossil jet-fuel. GFT-based pathways show the highest potential, saving over 96% of emissions under RSB methodologies.
• The cost of capital (WACC) and feedstock prices are primary drivers of SAF competitiveness. Lowering WACC from 20% to 13-15% would make several capital-intensive pathways competitive.

APA

Bole-Rentel, T., Chireshe, F., & Reeler, J. (2022). FUEL FOR THE FUTURE. WWF South Africa. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/fuel_for_the_future.pdf?39122/fuel-for-the-future

Chicago

Bole-Rentel, Tjaša, Farai Chireshe, and James Reeler. FUEL FOR THE FUTURE. WWF South Africa, 2022. https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/fuel_for_the_future.pdf?39122/fuel-for-the-future.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bole-Rentel |first1=Tjaša |last2=Chireshe |first2=Farai |last3=Reeler |first3=James |title=FUEL FOR THE FUTURE |publisher=WWF South Africa |date=2022 |url=https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/fuel_for_the_future.pdf?39122/fuel-for-the-future |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bolerentel2022fuel, author = {Bole-Rentel, Tjaša and Chireshe, Farai and Reeler, James}, title = {{FUEL FOR THE FUTURE}}, institution = {WWF South Africa}, year = {2022}, url = {https://wwfafrica.awsassets.panda.org/downloads/fuel_for_the_future.pdf?39122/fuel-for-the-future}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }