VISIONING FUTURES

The document argues that 20th-century infrastructure paradigms are ill-suited for 21st-century climate extremes and that current 'sustainable' infrastructure efforts focus too heavily on low-carbon goals while neglecting nature-based resilience. It highlights a critical gap in 'upstream' strategic planning, where natural capital is often ignored until the project approval stage. Through case studies in Mozambique, Mexico, Myanmar, and South Africa, the report demonstrates the value of integrating ecosystem services and climate scenarios into land-use planning. It introduces the 'Visioning Futures' framework, which emphasizes defining spatial scope, identifying future objectives, and performing sensitivity testing under various climate scenarios to avoid environmental risks and optimize infrastructure siting.

• A massive amount of infrastructure investment is projected by 2030, with an estimated $95 trillion expected for energy, transport, water, and telecommunications to support economic growth and basic services.
• Current infrastructure development is often characterized by a 'least-cost, shortest-path' design approach that ignores cumulative environmental impacts and the value of ecosystem services, leading to higher long-term risks and costs.
• Infrastructure development is a significant driver of deforestation; for instance, 95% of forest loss in the Amazon occurs within 5 km of a road.
• Existing 'sustainable infrastructure' frameworks, including those from multilateral development banks, often focus on low-carbon investments and social/environmental safeguards to reduce negative impacts rather than maximizing integrated resilience through natural capital.
• Nature-based solutions are typically introduced too late in the project cycle to effectively balance trade-offs, whereas they are most valuable when planned at the 'upstream' pre-feasibility stages of regional land-use planning.
• In Cabo Delgado, Mozambique, coastal ecosystems provide significant economic value, with mangrove, reef, and seagrass storm protection worth at least $1.5 million per year and fisheries habitat providing approximately $75 million annually to the local economy.
• The 'Visioning Futures' framework proposes a five-step process: defining spatial scope, identifying future objectives and alternatives, evaluating risks and dependencies, performing integrated assessment and sensitivity testing, and communication and iteration.
• Eco-engineering decision scaling (EEDS) is an innovative approach that starts with preferred outcomes and uses sensitivity testing to determine which infrastructure options are most 'robust' under various climate futures, as demonstrated in Mexico City's water supply planning.

APA

Bartlett, R. (2019). VISIONING FUTURES. WWF International. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/803/3umf76zq43_WWF_Visioning_Futures_2020_hi_res.pdf

Chicago

Bartlett, Ryan. VISIONING FUTURES. WWF International, 2019. https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/803/3umf76zq43_WWF_Visioning_Futures_2020_hi_res.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Bartlett |first1=Ryan |title=VISIONING FUTURES |publisher=WWF International |date=December 2019 |url=https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/803/3umf76zq43_WWF_Visioning_Futures_2020_hi_res.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{bartlett2019visioning, author = {Bartlett, Ryan}, title = {{VISIONING FUTURES}}, institution = {WWF International}, year = {2019}, month = dec, url = {https://www.worldwildlife.org/documents/803/3umf76zq43_WWF_Visioning_Futures_2020_hi_res.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }