Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America

The study finds that while the 2022 drought in Central South America was primarily driven by natural variability and La Niña conditions, human-induced climate change exacerbated the event by increasing temperatures, which reduced water availability through higher evapotranspiration. The drought caused severe agricultural losses in Argentina, including a projected 25-50% decrease in soy yields and a significant drop in wheat production, while limiting potable water access for over 75,000 people in Uruguay.

• The drought in Central South America during the October-December 2022 season was primarily driven by natural variability, specifically consecutive La Niña conditions, and cannot be attributed to anthropogenic climate change based on rainfall data alone.
• Human-induced climate change likely exacerbated the drought by increasing temperatures, which reduced water availability through higher potential evapotranspiration, although the study could not quantify this specific effect.
• The 2022 rainfall event for the whole region has a return period of 20 years, meaning there is a 5% chance of occurrence in any given year, while some individual stations saw return times up to 50 years.
• The drought caused severe agricultural impacts in Argentina, with wheat and soy harvests halved, leading to expected export deficits of 25-50%. Wheat production for 2022-23 is projected to drop from 22.4 to 12.4 million tonnes.
• In Uruguay, the drought resulted in more than 75,000 people losing access to potable water and limited water availability for livestock and crops.
• The drought's economic impact in Argentina is substantial, with the Economy Minister expecting a US$10 billion loss and a 2.2 point reduction in GDP, occurring alongside high inflation and currency devaluation.
• The drought affected water levels in major river basins, impacting hydropower generation and freshwater supplies for approximately 40 million people across Argentina, Brazil, and Paraguay.
• Analysis of climate models indicates that while anthropogenic climate change may lead to an increase in rainfall (a wetting trend), this is counteracted by temperature increases that reduce the amount of water reaching the ground.

APA

Arias, P. A., Rivera, J. A., Sörensson, A. A., Zachariah, M., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vautard, R., Koren, G., Pinto, I., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Raju, E., Li, S., Yang, W., Vecchi, G. A., & Otto, F. E. (n.d.). Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Uruguay-drought-Scientific-Report.pdf

Chicago

Arias, Paola A., Juan Antonio Rivera, Anna A. Sörensson, Mariam Zachariah, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, et al. Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Uruguay-drought-Scientific-Report.pdf.

Wikipedia

{{cite report |last1=Arias |first1=Paola A. |last2=Rivera |first2=Juan Antonio |last3=Sörensson |first3=Anna A. |last4=Zachariah |first4=Mariam |last5=Barnes |first5=Clair |last6=Philip |first6=Sjoukje |last7=Kew |first7=Sarah |last8=Vautard |first8=Robert |last9=Koren |first9=Gerbrand |display-authors=etal |title=Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America |publisher=World Weather Attribution |url=https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Uruguay-drought-Scientific-Report.pdf |access-date=23 October 2026 |via=Climate Insights Directory}}

BibTeX

@techreport{ariasndvulnerability, author = {Arias, Paola A. and Rivera, Juan Antonio and Sörensson, Anna A. and Zachariah, Mariam and Barnes, Clair and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vautard, Robert and Koren, Gerbrand and Pinto, Izidine and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Raju, Emmanuel and Li, Sihan and Yang, Wenchang and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Otto, Friederike E.L.}, title = {{Vulnerability and high temperatures exacerbate impacts of ongoing drought in Central South America}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WWA-Argentina-Uruguay-drought-Scientific-Report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }