High temperatures exacerbated by climate change made 2022 Northern Hemisphere soil moisture droughts more likely

The study concludes that human-induced climate change significantly increased the probability of the 2022 summer soil moisture droughts in both West-Central Europe and the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, primarily driven by a strong increase in high temperatures rather than precipitation deficits. For West-Central Europe, the likelihood of root-zone soil moisture drought increased by 3-4 times and surface soil moisture drought by 5-6 times. In the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, the increase was more pronounced, with the likelihood of root-zone drought increasing by at least 20 times and surface drought by at least 5 times. These conditions led to severe impacts on agriculture, energy production, and water infrastructure, compounded by socio-economic stressors such as the conflict in Ukraine.

• Human-induced climate change increased the likelihood of the 2022 summer soil moisture droughts in both the Northern Hemisphere extratropics and West-Central Europe, with observation-based data showing a larger change in likelihood than climate models.
• The primary driver for the increased drought in these regions was the significant rise in high temperatures.
• In West-Central Europe, anthropogenic climate change made the 2022 root-zone soil moisture drought approximately 3-4 times more likely and the surface soil moisture drought approximately 5-6 times more likely.
• For the Northern Hemisphere extratropics, the likelihood of the 2022 soil moisture drought increased by at least 20 times for the root zone and at least 5 times for the surface soil moisture.
• Observation-driven land surface models indicate that the very low summer surface and root-zone soil moisture observed in 2022 typically occurs once every 20 years in the current climate for both studied regions.
• Climate models suggest that soil moisture droughts will continue to increase in frequency and intensity with further global warming, aligning with IPCC AR6 projections.
• The 2022 drought in Europe caused significant agricultural losses, including reductions in maize (16%), soybean (15%), and sunflower (12%) crops compared to five-year averages.
• The drought negatively impacted European energy systems by reducing hydroelectric power generation—with Italian plants generating 40-50% less power—and hindering the cooling of nuclear reactors in France.
• Water infrastructure vulnerabilities were highlighted by the 2022 event, with some French municipalities requiring water deliveries by truck and Italian cities like Verona and Pisa implementing water rationing.

APA

Schumacher, D. L., Zachariah, M., Otto, F., Barnes, C., Philip, S., Kew, S., Vahlberg, M., Singh, R., Heinrich, D., Arrighi, J., van Aalst, M., Thalheimer, L., Raju, E., Hauser, M., Hirschi, M., Gudmundsson, L., Beaudoing, H. K., Rodell, M., Li, S., ... Seneviratne, S. I. (n.d.). High temperatures exacerbated by climate change made 2022 Northern Hemisphere soil moisture droughts more likely. World Weather Attribution. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WCE-NH-drought-scientific-report.pdf

Chicago

Schumacher, Dominik L., Mariam Zachariah, Friederike Otto, Clair Barnes, Sjoukje Philip, Sarah Kew, Maja Vahlberg, et al. High temperatures exacerbated by climate change made 2022 Northern Hemisphere soil moisture droughts more likely. World Weather Attribution, n.d. https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WCE-NH-drought-scientific-report.pdf.

Wikipedia

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BibTeX

@techreport{schumacherndhigh, author = {Schumacher, Dominik L. and Zachariah, Mariam and Otto, Friederike and Barnes, Clair and Philip, Sjoukje and Kew, Sarah and Vahlberg, Maja and Singh, Roop and Heinrich, Dorothy and Arrighi, Julie and van Aalst, Maarten and Thalheimer, Lisa and Raju, Emmanuel and Hauser, Mathias and Hirschi, Martin and Gudmundsson, Lukas and Beaudoing, Hiroko K. and Rodell, Matthew and Li, Sihan and Yang, Wenchang and Vecchi, Gabriel A. and Vautard, Robert and Harrington, Luke J and Seneviratne, Sonia I.}, title = {{High temperatures exacerbated by climate change made 2022 Northern Hemisphere soil moisture droughts more likely}}, institution = {World Weather Attribution}, url = {https://www.worldweatherattribution.org/wp-content/uploads/WCE-NH-drought-scientific-report.pdf}, urldate = {2026-10-23}, note = {Indexed by Climate Insights Directory} }